艾尔尼诺冲击供应 原棕油价上看RM4200
(吉隆坡6日讯)艾尔尼诺(El Nino)的高温冲击全球农作物收成,分析师预计,此现象料进一步影响棕油供应,带动原棕油(CPO)价格在明年保持在每公吨介于3800至4200令吉的高水平。
MIDF证券研究在出席东马棕油会议暨展览会(emPOC)后指出,截至目前,沙巴原棕油价格为每公吨3850令吉,砂拉越则为每公吨3825令吉,大马整体原棕油价格则为每公吨3897令吉。
该行引述种植园研究机构Ganling私人有限公司主管凌亚宏(译音)指出,虽然艾尔尼诺现象已延后,但今年8月至明年4月很可能发生强烈的高温现象,进一步推高原棕油价格。
尽管如此,该行指出,通胀压力和家庭支出紧缩导致本地和全球基本利率居高不下,全球需求依然脆弱,或会为原棕油的需求前景带来风险。
分析师认为,原棕油价格在明年将保持在高水平。
外围需求疲弱
TransGraph Consulting董事经理纳加惹在小组讨论上指出,由于市场已开始准备应对明年温和的经济衰退,因此对风险较高的资产(如原棕油等大宗商品)需求依然疲软。
此外,主要进口国年初至今的棕油期末库存仍然偏高,印度年初至今的库存为76.6%,巴基斯坦为69.8%,中国和孟加拉则各持有100%库存。
有鉴于此,MIDF证券研究预计,今年下半年原棕油需求将趋于低迷,将全年目标价定于每公吨3500令吉。
该行的首选股项为吉隆坡甲洞(KLK,2445,主要板种植),目标价为24.60令吉,因为该公司产油率最高,新鲜油棕果的产量或成熟度也是同侪中最高。
此外,在收购怡保工程种植后,吉隆坡甲洞在大马和印尼的土地储备增加了7万3827公顷,至27万9037公顷,其中24%园区将提早进入成熟期。
https://www.chinapress.com.my/20230906/%E8%89%BE%E5%B0%94%E5%B0%BC%E8%AF%BA%E5%86%B2%E5%87%BB%E4%BE%9B%E5%BA%94-%E5%8E%9F%E6%A3%95%E6%B2%B9%E4%BB%B7%E4%B8%8A%E7%9C%8Brm4200/
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