鲁比尼:市场距离黑天鹅只剩一个标准差
末日博士鲁比尼。
(纽约31日讯)因预言2008年债务崩盘和金融危机而名声大噪的鲁比尼表示,世界正在接近一场类似的崩盘。
“我们距离半黑天鹅事件已经只剩一个标准差了,”这位Roubini Macro Associates的董事长兼总执行长,周三接受彭博电视《Surveillance》节目采访时说。
“通胀之类的问题,不仅在美国,在欧洲也有。我们还有战争带来的重大地缘政治冲击,而未来几年更广泛的地缘政治萧条才露出一角。”
鲁比尼说:“中国、俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜将挑战美国和西方。乌克兰战争只是这场冷战2.0时代的首秀。问题是这是一场冷战还是热战。我们处在一个非常困难的局面,极端事件正在发生。”
政策平衡非常困难
身为纽约大学斯特恩商学院经济学家的鲁比尼表示,部分挑战来自美国和其他决策者同时面临的问题,这些问题需要相互冲突的解决方案。
“货币政策、财政政策、制裁政策。你有很多政策工具,但也有非常矛盾的目标,”鲁比尼说。
“现在通胀大幅上升,有些目标是压低通胀率。但你也有充分就业的任务,跟通胀目标背道而驰。然后你想要制裁惩罚俄罗斯,防止其他人打错了算盘。所有这些意味着实现最佳政策平衡非常困难。”
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