Dear all,
Follow up with my last year article: My Take on Year 2019 “An Eventful Year”
Please allow me to reflect on Year 2020: The Year of Darkness
The year 2020 start off with news of outbreak of a respiratory disease of unknown cause:
On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases
of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan
City, Hubei Province of China. As of 3 January 2020, a total of 44
patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology have been reported to WHO by
the national authorities in China. Of the 44 cases reported, 11 are
severely ill, while the remaining 33 patients are in stable condition.
According to media reports, the concerned market in Wuhan was closed on 1
January 2020 for environmental sanitation and disinfection.
On 23 January 2020, the central government of China imposed a lockdown
in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei in an effort to quarantine the center
of an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); this action is
commonly referred to as the Wuhan lockdown (Chinese: 武汉封城; pinyin: Wǔhàn fēng chéng).
The World Health Organization (WHO), although stating that it was
beyond its own guidelines, commended the move, calling it "unprecedented
in public health history”.
The outbreak is now known as COVID-19 pandemic or according to soon to
be Ex-President of United State of America President Trump: “China Flu”
or “Kung Flu”
The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic,
is an ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by
severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It was
first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The World Health
Organization declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of
International Concern in January 2020 and a pandemic in March 2020. As
of 23 December 2020, more than 78 million cases have been confirmed,
with more than 1.71 million deaths attributed to COVID-19.
In Malaysia a new dawn is now a downhill “Dark Cloud Cover”
(A candlestick pattern that shows a shift in momentum to the downside
following a bright upside). On a leap day in a leap year of Feb 29 2020
Malaysia Political Frogs (MPs) leap from one party to another party and
brought down the people elected GE14 PH’s government with a backdoor
PN’s government. Meanwhile the outbreak was confirmed to have reached
Malaysia in late January 2020, when it was detected on travelers from
China arriving in Johor via Singapore on 25 January. Reported cases
remained relatively low at first and were largely confined to imported
cases, until by March a localized cluster began to emerge linked to a
Tablighi Jamaat religious gathering held in Sri Petaling, Kuala Lumpur.
By 16 March, a nationwide "Movement Control Order" (MCO), where
non-essential services, business, travel activities are on lockdown. On
25 March, the MCO was extended by an additional two weeks, until 14
April, as the rate of new cases per day remained consistently high. The
MCO was further announced to be extended until 28 April on 10 April, and
to 12 May on 23 April. A gradual easing of restrictions was
implemented, first phase after the lockdown is the "Conditional Movement
Control Order" (CMCO) on 1 May, which allows most businesses to open on
4 May, followed by a "Recovery Movement Control Order" (RMCO) as the
second phase from 10 June. Originally slated to expire on 31 August, the
RMCO has been further extended to 31 December 2020 due to second and
third wave of outbreak, no thanks to Sabah State snap election on 26th
September 2020 which was won by PN at a heavy cost to Malaysia as the
outbreak first spread by returnees form Sabah election campaign and
election worker are now more wide spread with many local clusters all
over Malaysia States with daily cases in thousand and covid red zones
under EMCO lockdown.
Malaysia stock market was on a free fall to bottomless pit by March
2020 as investors’ sentiment was spooked by fall of PH’s government and
nationwide MCO that halt almost all industries/business activities
(except those in essential services/industries). The FBMKLCI index hit
rock bottom on 19th March at 1219.72 point (Year range: 1,219.72 - 1,684.58) and prompted Bursa to suspend short selling on March 24.
The FBMKLCI had recovered thanks to local retail participants of about
30+%, me included due to many free time when working from home. Just a
word of caution the short selling is making a return next year.
Last year I wrote: what worked well in 2019?
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” - Benjamin Graham.
A. First level thinking; “This quarter earnings is better than last
quarter earnings and next quarter earnings will be better than this
quarter earnings” With that you can write 20 articles in i3 to promote
the stock and earn RM 58 million within 9 months like Mr. Koon.
B. 3iii's and Philip's second level thinking; “The market price will
continue going up when companies can make stable, predictable and
consistent revenue and earnings growth year after year” Fund managers
and Market makers love this type of stocks and these stocks will be
rewarded with high premium of PE 25 to 50 to 75 to 100 and beyond.
Example: Nestle, QL and Stoneco
C. Third level thinking; “Calvintaneng’s limitless stretching of
imagination and story-telling” He had contributed thousand articles to
i3 and had made so many “Chun-Chun” calls.
For year 2020, please allow me to nominate the most outstanding i3 blogger that got it spot on:
-
Connie555 is spot on with his article: Why Comfort Gloves Bhd is the biggest beneficiary from Covid-19. Publish date: Thu, 16 Apr 2020, 8:08 PM: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/valueseek/2020-04-16-story-h1506012669-WHY_COMFORT_GLOVES_BHD_IS_THE_BIGGEST_BENEFICIARY_FROM_COVID_19.jsp
A picture is worth a thousand words, as u can see from the
picture above that Comfort Gloves Berhad is SOLELY specialise in
Examination Gloves. During the tough time like this, I believe the
shortage of gloves is mainly Examination Gloves due to the nature of
Covid-19, of which we have to protect ourselves especially the
front-liner from the virus.
-
qqq33333333 is spot on with his “X” factor SCIB and Kpower. Publish date: Mon, 2 Mar 2020, 12:27 PM: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq33333333/2020-03-02-story-h1484661136-SCIB_and_Kpower.jsp
Serba's Karim is one the hottest corporate figures in Malaysia. Just
look at the enormous appreciate of Serba since listing. Plenty of
satisfied customers (fund managers). Now, want rain get rain, want wind
get wind.
I am looking at $ 1 billion market cap for each in 2-3 years.
so, SSLEE, its all about attitude. Don't look down on SCIB and Kpower.
Each of them less than 100 million shares. Very easy to goreng.
qqq3 is right on his “X” factor or Karim/Koon factor. I learned the
hard lesson how to differentiate between new major shareholders Karim
that can bring in more business to the company as opposed to Koon
brought in his followers to fry the shares.
Need to learn from Philip the ability in learning new tricks:
After-all he is flexible enough to know how to make money from SCIB and KPOWER:
Posted by Philip (buy what you understand) > Mar 26, 2020 2:58 PM | Report Abuse
Sorry, I don't like those 2 companies, I have gone through it already. too manipulated.
Posted by qqq33333333 > Mar 26, 2020 2:07 PM | Report Abuse
Scib and Kpower gave u the best recovery and earliest recovery..... good reasons for that
Posted by RKT999 > Mar 27, 2020 12:51 PM | Report Abuse
@ Philip
Could you enlighten us on why you think Scib and Kpower is over manipulated?
Posted by Philip (buy what you understand) > Mar 27, 2020 3:23 PM | Report Abuse
I thought it would be very obvious. Microcap stocks with valuation of USD 25-30 million. With revenues and earnings with no historical basis of growing earnings and revenues jumping to incredibly high PE's with not so amazing results. Cash flow, debt, return on equity, contract awards all give indication of manipulation.
Those are the companies that I totally avoid. Not because it is not a money earner, but because illiquidity, small valuation and the lack of long term results are a recipe for trading that gives big results and bigger losses that cannot be predicted.
I don't know how to make money from stocks like these, so I prefer to keep to my area of competence.
Posted by Philip (buy what you understand) > Mar 26, 2020 2:58 PM | Report Abuse
Sorry, I don't like those 2 companies, I have gone through it already. too manipulated.
Posted by qqq33333333 > Mar 26, 2020 2:07 PM | Report Abuse
Scib and Kpower gave u the best recovery and earliest recovery..... good reasons for that
Posted by RKT999 > Mar 27, 2020 12:51 PM | Report Abuse
@ Philip
Could you enlighten us on why you think Scib and Kpower is over manipulated?
Posted by Philip (buy what you understand) > Mar 27, 2020 3:23 PM | Report Abuse
I thought it would be very obvious. Microcap stocks with valuation of USD 25-30 million. With revenues and earnings with no historical basis of growing earnings and revenues jumping to incredibly high PE's with not so amazing results. Cash flow, debt, return on equity, contract awards all give indication of manipulation.
Those are the companies that I totally avoid. Not because it is not a money earner, but because illiquidity, small valuation and the lack of long term results are a recipe for trading that gives big results and bigger losses that cannot be predicted.
I don't know how to make money from stocks like these, so I prefer to keep to my area of competence.
3. Choivo Capital a worthy rival to
Calvintaneng’s “Chun-Chun” calls: His call is with long and in-depth
research and data collection unlike Calvintaneng’s limitless stretching of imagination and story-telling
You must have patience to read his long easy to understand what he is trying to say.
My next nominees is for Dreamer of the year award:
1. Stockraider: I Had the Strangest Dream of Netx. By the way he already cut win with profit of 2 new Myvi.
Posted by stockraider > Nov 3, 2020 10:36 AM | Report Abuse
Last Night I Had the Strangest Dream of Netx;
Last night I had the strangest dream
I never dreamed before
I dreamed i saw a big screen showing Netx is price Rm 1.00
then i checkTo my cds there is 2.62m of netx
and the warrant cds there was 1.31m at 90 sen
i key & filled my netx sell orders they matched at 2.62m share at rm 1.04
i key & filled my netx-w 1.31m & that was matched at 95 sen
And 3 days later & go to the bank there is rm 3.96m showing in my bank account
Last Night I Had the Strangest Dream of Netx;
Last night I had the strangest dream
I never dreamed before
I dreamed i saw a big screen showing Netx is price Rm 1.00
then i checkTo my cds there is 2.62m of netx
and the warrant cds there was 1.31m at 90 sen
i key & filled my netx sell orders they matched at 2.62m share at rm 1.04
i key & filled my netx-w 1.31m & that was matched at 95 sen
And 3 days later & go to the bank there is rm 3.96m showing in my bank account
2. Choivo Capital: His writing is long as usual but interesting. I wish him all the best and may his dreams come true
Should I talk about yesterday? When I found out that it was that
precise moment, where I made the correct decisions to not to throw all
caution to the wind, and jump in with nothing but my underwear left, was
the absolute bottom? (My thesis was that margin and forced sales are
over, and it's time to buy, it appeared to be accurate). And that if I
had done so, I would likely not need to head back to the office come the
end of the movement restriction, with so many of my high conviction
purchases up by 200-300%.
The nominees for the Golden Turkey award of the Year:
1. Koon Yew Yin: Dayang a great buying opportunity.
Publish date: Sat, 11 Jan 2020, 6:50 PM
His ‘Sailang’ all-in with margin finance cost him 90% of his wealth. Will history repeat again?
At the close yesterday, UBS Investment Bank, with HQ in Zurich was
queuing to buy 2.6 million shares at Rm 2.50 and there were only 31,100
shares selling at Rm 2.51. The closing price was Rm 2.51.
This aggressive buying by UBS also means that those who have sold
earlier cannot expect to buy back at cheaper prices. What are they going
to do with the sale proceeds? They cannot find another stock with the
same profit growth prospect. They should be humble and admit their
mistakes so that they can take advantage of this golden opportunity to
make money.
When UBS is wanting to buy Dayang so aggressively, you cannot lose money if you buy as soon as possible. I will use all my available margin finance to continue buying.
2. Icon8888: Covid19 induced bear market won’t last long.
Publish date: Fri, 28 Feb 2020, 7:28 AM.
By the way anyone knew why Icon8888 no more active in i3 forum
since his last comment in i3 was on May 6, 2020 9:40 AM. I pray for his
safety, wellness and a return to i3 as we miss him a lot.
The current correction is a good chance to buy into quality stocks that
you missed. The crisis will be over in around two months time. I said
so because that was what happened in 2003 during the SARS epidemic. That
time the helpless feeling was the same - the virus spreaded from one
country to another, and there was no end in sight.
But the end did come. It came quietly and graciously. As the weather
gradually warmed up in May 2003, the virus slowly disappeared. As simple
as that.
I stop my nomination here as there are so many i3 bloggers that I
wanted to thank them for making my investment in 2020 a profitable one.
By the way, everyone is welcome to nominate their i3 blogger of the
year. I am looking forward to reading more articles from i3 bloggers as I
believe sharing is caring. I’m grateful to i3 bloggers and commentators
for sharing their knowledge in i3 because knowledge, if kept to
your-self, has no value. Only by sharing, we create the value. Let’s
build a community of Giant Redwoods in i3 where we support and hold up
each other.
In the year where we are supposed to achieve our “Vision 2020”, we
Malaysians have failed as a Nation and we can kiss our Vision 2020
goodbye. Not just we failed to become a developed country, we fail
miserably to overcome the nine challenges under Vision 2020 - fostering a
united country “Bangsa Malaysia”, a society with a liberated spirit, a
democratic society, a moral and ethical society, a liberal society, a
scientific and progressive society, a caring society, an economically
just society and a prosperous society.
As the year 2020 comes to an end, a new beginning awaits us.
The rollout of Covid-19 vaccine is a light at the end of the tunnel, but
there are still long ways to go before we emerge from the darkness as
each of us need to struggle between good over evil inside us to claim
victories.
May good triumph over evil; light dispel darkness; wisdom
replace ignorance; humility defeat hubris; love overcome hatred and
peace instead of war. Let’s celebrate the return of light inside us and
may the light from within shine brightly a path towards a fulfilling
life, love, joy, peace and prosperity.
Thank you. I wish all a “Merry Christmas and Prosperous New Year”.
Stay safe, stay invested, stay happy and enjoy the holiday/long weekend with family.
Best Regards
SS LEE
PS: The best advice from i3lurker when I comment: I am waiting for year-end discount day sales and to buy low and sell high:
Posted by i3lurker > Dec 2, 2020 8:28 PM | Report Abuse
you wun make money if you do like that
sometimes you need to buy high and sell higher
this is the case where again your BFF says dun sell and traders dun make money.
waiting is very bad for profits. Coz you get zero income waiting. Zero stocks mah
This is pure judgement and skill.
just coincidental that whatever you say your BFF got something to say.
this is the case where again your BFF says dun sell and traders dun make money.
waiting is very bad for profits. Coz you get zero income waiting. Zero stocks mah
This is pure judgement and skill.
just coincidental that whatever you say your BFF got something to say.
Just that I have got a very good memory.
Dear I3lurker,
Thanks for the advice but I’m sorry to disappoint you as I
still keep about 30% cash in my Hlebroking trading account in case you
short Amarda, Genting, QL or Insas for me to collect cheaply.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2020-12-23-story-h1538367552-My_Take_on_Year_2020_The_Year_of_Darkness.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2020-12-23-story-h1538367552-My_Take_on_Year_2020_The_Year_of_Darkness.jsp
