CiA.CONSORTIUM of INDEPENDANT ANALYST
@free@prob@wok@chief@dynasty@yfhew1
IMPACT OF VACCINE ON GLOVES DEMAND AND STOCK PRICES !!!
Above is the data of gloves export from 2000 until 2020 M6.
Wave after wave of pandemic, the export of medical gloves continues to rise….this is with or without the discovery of a Vaccine.
The 2nd year after an outbreak, export of glove can increase by about 30%~40% more. Take for instance of (i) year 2004 with 2006, the increase in export rose by 34.6%, and (ii) 2009 with 2011 the increase rose by about 40%
We name each rise and ebb a “Crest”. Depending on the severity of the outbreak, the immensity for each Crest varies. The more infectious and wider spread the virus, the longer and wider the Crest will be.
If we compare the earlier pandemics with Covid 19, Covid 19’s crest have not even begin yet!!
Should we apply our mathematical projections with reference to the earlier pandemics for Covid 19, this is what you will see.
It will at least take more than 18 months years before the Crest will begin ebb while some even last up to few years !!! Covid 19 is a lot more severe than all the earlier outbreaks combined.
To compare how previously an outbreaks will give an impact on export and also share prices; we can refer to this graph below using Topglove as a reference.
We have selected Topglove because it is OEM’s biggest producer and its export value correlates very closely to Malaysia’s medical glove export revenues.
Its share prices will continue to run for more than 18 months at least.
Here is our summary based on the data above;
Appearance of Vaccine = INCREASE demand for more gloves.
Complete Vaccination of whole world = minimum 2-3yrs of elevated demand for gloves.
Control of pandemic announced by who = minimum 1-2 yrs from now.
Stock piling of PPE for strategic resource = 1 to 2 more yrs of elevated demand for gloves.
Total expected high demand for gloves minimum 3 to 4 yrs.
Elevated health awareness becomes a norm for Service, Airlines,
Transportation, F & B etc. Its now become NEW norm .By wearing
gloves, they are projecting a good and responsible image beside being a
safety SOP to be followed. All these resulted in super high demand for
gloves. Even when Covid is under control.
There are many cases of Covid spreading in Frozen food and supplies.
Gloves will be needed for prevention and handling due to heigtened
hygiene awareness. This resulted in new norm in many sector of life for
prevention. And will continue to stay even post covid.
No elimination for Covid is expected. So 3-6 mths PPE storage for every country will be ongoing forever.
Possible another outbreak of flu virus within these 5 years n beyond.
Glove stock is now an ESSENTIAL HEDGE in every funds portfolio.
Note:
The available of vaccine will further increase the asp and demand of
gloves. Becoz they need to stockpile for more testing , preparation,
production, distribution and disposal according to WHO SOP for every
human on earth now. Never b4 seen huge demand will be coming.
https://www.who.int/immunization/programmes_systems/supply_chain/evm/en/index2.html
Can check above link for more about gloves usage.
The available of vaccine will further increase the asp and demand of gloves. Becoz they need to stockpile for
1. More testing
2. Preparation
3. Production
4. Distribution
5. Disposal
according to WHO SOP for every human on earth now.
I repeat is for EVERY humann being on earth.
Never b4 seen HUGE demand will be coming.
And regarding the New vaccine candidate by Pfizer.
Its more a SENTIMENT CRSIS rather than a BUSINESS CRISIS.
ITS BUSINESS AS USUAL AND EVEN BETTER HERE IN GLOVES BUSINESS.
Disclaimer…This is not an advice to buy or sell. It is just for education and sharing purpose.
CiA do not take accountability for any trading occurring from our information disseminated.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-11-10-story-h1535717117-VACCINE_OR_WITHOUT_BUSINESS_AS_USUAL_RECAP.jsp
