https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/197801.jsp
Please make reference to the above my post published on 14th March 2019.
The mother share and WA were RM0.340 and RM0.110 respectively.
Then 3 days after that on 17th March, I wrote a comment to the post that we should take profit as both mother share and WA had gone up so much.
7 months has passed, let us check again what happen to SAPNRG and SAPNRG-WA now.
Surprisingly, they are RM0.270 and RM0.125 now.
Mother share has gone down 7 cents or 21%!
But WA is RM0.125, still 1.5 cents higher than the then RM0.110!
This is crazy.
Anyway, let the calculation tells.
Inputs:
1) The mother share volatility, calculated from the last 90 trading days was 32%, significant drop from last March's 45%.
2) For the interest rate, last March I input 4%, so now also key-in 4% lor.
Outputs:
3) Aiya, the fair value for SAPNRG-WA is only RM0.055 now, the market price of RM0.125 is very very expensive lei.
But wait, wait a moment,
I always say that the interest rate is actually used as the average return per year in the calculation.
Why not put a higher %? May be the market is believing SAPNRG could provide high return to the shareholders lei?
OK, OK, I trial and error lor, until the fair value approaching the market price of RM0.125.
Wow, the interest rate has to be as high as 16% lei.
For your info, for the purpose of evaluating whether to buy or not a structured / company warrant, I never input interest rate higher than 8%.
So, after talking so much, what is my conclusion?
At the moment I dun have any SAPNRG or SAPNRG-WA.
I might want to buy SAPNRG-WA again if I find the market price is very much lower than the fair value.
For your info, for this company SAPNRG, I will key-in interest rate of maximum 4% only.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/230904.jsp
Trade at your own Risk!
