[PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD：预计未来一个季度烯烃及衍生物市场将走软，鉴于下游产品价格较低，预计化肥和甲醇部门的需求会下降（因其他工厂周转后已恢复供应）]
4Q18 vs 4Q17:
由于法定周转活动后的库存补充，销售量仍然差不多。尽管收入增加，EBITDA略微下降4100万令吉或2％至17亿令吉，主要是由于本季度开展的维护活动相关运营支出增加。
烯烃和衍生物：
尽管原油价格较高，但由于市场供过于求及需求疲弱，该部门的平均产品价格仍与同季度相当。税后利润也增加了5600万令吉或9％至6.93亿令吉。
肥料和甲醇：
由于法定周转活动水平较高，该部门的工厂利用率较去年同期的90％下降到89％。相应地，产量和销量下降。 EBITDA减少了9800万令吉或13％至6.76亿令吉，主要是由于法定周转期间维护活动的运营支出增加。
YTD18 vs YTD17：
由于产品价格和销售量增加，收入增加了22亿令吉或12％，达到196亿令吉，部分被马来西亚令吉兑美元走强所抵消。
烯烃和衍生物：
收入增加了9.35亿令吉或8％，达到123亿令吉，主要原因是产品价格和销售量增加，部分被马来西亚令吉兑美元走强所抵消。经过一次性调整后（与上一年人力相关费用的累计有关），EBITDA略微下调5千万令吉或1％至40亿令吉。
肥料和甲醇：
该部门的工厂利用率为89％，去年为90％（主要原因是其尿素和甲醇工厂的法定周转活动水平较高）。该部门录得更高的收入（+12亿令吉或19％）至74亿令吉，主要受价格及销售量增加所推动，部分被马来西亚令吉兑美元走强所抵销。
4Q18 vs 3Q18：
由于原油价格较上一季度走弱，整体平均产品价格下跌。税后利润略微增加2700万令吉或2％至13亿令吉，这是由于其股东贷款产生的未实现的外汇收益所致，部分被终止确认未使用的商业损失和再投资补贴的税收支出增加所抵消，根据2018年财政法案，利用这些奖励措施的时间限制在7年。
财务状况：
总资产增加主要是由于现金及现金等价物增加57亿令吉或85％至123亿令吉;本年度产生的利润，定期贷款提取以及子公司50％股权和股东贷款的撤资，部分被石化公司石化项目的资本投资，股东支付股息以及收购某些子公司的非控股权益抵消。然而，在上述撤资中，总资产的增加部分被物业，厂房及设备减少17亿令吉或8％至190亿令吉抵消。总权益较上年同期增加23亿令吉或8％至312亿令吉，主要归因于年内产生的溢利，部分被向股东派付股息及收购若干附属公司的非控股权益所持股份所抵销。
前景：
国油石化将继续其卓越运营计划及供应商关系管理，以维持超过行业基准的工厂利用率水平。
烯烃和衍生物：
国油石化预计未来一个季度烯烃及衍生物市场将走软。鉴于中国农历新年假期期间下游需求放缓，东亚供应充足。
肥料和甲醇：
鉴于下游产品价格较低，国油石化预计化肥和甲醇部门的需求会下降（因其他工厂周转后已恢复供应）。
---------------------------------------------------------------
James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:
a) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM1.24 in 8 months 3 days, total return is 56%
b) GBGAQRS (GABUNGAN AQRS BHD), recommended on 16 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.80, rose to RM1.17 in 2 months 15 days, total return is 46.3%
c) KGB (KELINGTON GROUP BHD), recommended on 23 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.965, rose to RM1.27 in 2 months 9 days, total return is 31.6%
d) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM0.93 (dividend RM0.007) in 6 months 19 days, total return is 31%
e) VIZIONE (VIZIONE HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 30 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.85, rose to RM0.985 in 2 months 5 day, total return is 15.9%
f) BAUTO (BERMAZ AUTO BHD), recommended on 14 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.89, rose to RM2.15 (dividend RM0.0375) in 4 months 17 day, total return is 15.7%
g) HSL (HOCK SENG LEE BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM1.40, rose to RM1.56 (dividend RM0.01) in 8 months 3 days, total return is 12.1%
h) ELKDESA (ELK-DESA RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 18 Nov 18, initial price was RM1.27, rose to RM1.38 (dividend RM0.035) in 3 months 13 days, total return is 11.4%
i) JAKS (JAKS RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 20 Jan 19, initial price was RM0.575, rose to RM0.62 in 1 month 12 days, total return is 7.8%
我希望将我的策略分享给读者，希望他们在阅读后能够表现出色。我正在使用基本面分析（Fundamental Analysis）：
预计公司每年的增长率必须> 14％
我想说服读者学习基本面分析FA以便能从股市赚钱。
我为想从马来西亚股票市场赚钱的读者提供STOCK PICK服务。想订阅我的邮件以从股票市场获取良好回报的人，可以通过 jamesngshare@gmail.com 或我的FB页面 https://web.facebook.com/jamesshareinvest/ 与我联系
【看懂年报和季报】课程
时间：11a.m. – 7p.m
日期：4月21日星期日
地点：G Inn Hotel, George Town (Penang)
日期：4月28日星期日
地点：Johor Bahru
日期：5月26日星期日
地点：Hotel Sri Petaling, KL (包括免费3份点心，茶和咖啡)
有兴趣的朋友，可以电邮或PM FB page联络我
email：jamesngshare@gmail.com
电话/Whatsapp : 011 - 15852043
为了方便大家查询我写过的公司和选股文章以及视频，制作了索引。大家只要依照日期，就能从这
https://web.facebook.com/jamesshareinvest/posts/2205699789696763 找到公司和选股文章以及视频。
James的股票投资James Share Investing Blog: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/
James的股票投资James Share Investing Blog Index: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/blidx.jsp
Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/jamesinvesting
这个是我的TELEGRAM Group链接，大家可以在这个Group获知何时做Fb live: https://t.me/joinchat/LhwHNhdU1fDgxrSafTrTiw
这个分享纯属讨论以及领域的分析，买或卖自负。请Like和Share这个post。最终决定永远是你的，谢谢。
James Ng
----------------------------------------------
[PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD: anticipate that the Olefins and Derivatives segment to soften in the coming quarter, expect the Fertiliser and Methanol segment to be soft as supplies resume after plant turnarounds amidst lower demand in view of low downstream product prices]
4Q18 vs 4Q17:
Sales volumes remained comparable due to replenishment of inventory post statutory turnaround activities. EBITDA decreased marginally by RM41 million or 2% to RM1.7 billion despite higher revenue, mainly due to higher operating expenditure relating to maintenance activities undertaken during the quarter.
Olefins and Derivatives:
Average product prices for the segment remained comparable with the corresponding quarter despite the higher crude oil price, due to oversupply in the market and weak demand. Profit after tax also increased by RM56 million or 9% to RM693 million.
Fertilisers and Methanol:
Plant utilisation for the segment was lower at 89% against 90% in the corresponding quarter due to higher level of statutory turnaround activities. Correspondingly, production and sales volumes declined. EBITDA decreased by RM98 million or 13% to RM676 million mainly due to the higher operating expenditure relating to maintenance activities undertaken during the statutory turnaround.
YTD18 vs YTD17:
Revenue increased by RM2.2 billion or 12% at RM19.6 billion on the back of higher product prices and sales volumes, partially offset by the strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar.
Olefins and Derivatives:
Revenue increased by RM935 million or 8% at RM12.3 billion largely attributable to higher product prices and sales volumes, partially negated by the strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar. EBITDA was marginally lower by RM50 million or 1% to RM4.0 billion following a once-off adjustment relating to under accrual of manpower-related expenses in respect of the previous year.
Fertilisers and Methanol:
Plant utilisation for the segment was at 89% against 90% in the corresponding year largely driven by higher level of statutory turnaround activities at its urea and methanol plants. The segment recorded higher revenue by RM1.2 billion or 19% to RM7.4 billion mainly driven by higher prices and sales volumes, partially negated by the strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar.
4Q18 vs 3Q18:
Overall average product prices declined as crude oil price weakened from the preceding quarter. Profit after tax increased slightly by RM27 million or 2% to RM1.3 billion contributed by unrealised foreign exchange gain arising from its shareholders loan, partially offset by higher tax expense upon derecognition of unutilised business losses and reinvestment allowances pursuant to Finance Act 2018 where period of utilisation of these incentives has been limited to 7 years.
Financial position:
Increasing of total assets was primarily due to the increase in cash and cash equivalent by RM5.7 billion or 85% to RM12.3 billion; contributed by profit generated during the year, term loan drawdown, as well as divestment of 50% equity interest and shareholder loans in a subsidiary, partially offset by capital investment in the petrochemicals projects within PIC, dividend payment to shareholders and payment for the acquisition of a non-controlling interest in certain subsidiaries. However, the increase in total assets was partially offset by reduction in property, plant and equipment of RM1.7 billion or 8% to RM19.0 billion upon the abovementioned divestment. Total equity was higher by RM2.3 billion or 8% at RM31.2 billion largely attributable to profit generated during the year which was partially offset by dividend payment to shareholders and acquisition of shares held by a non-controlling interest in certain subsidiaries.
Prospects:
The Group will continue with its operational excellence programme and supplier relationship management to sustain plant utilisation level at above industry benchmark.
Olefins and Derivatives:
The Group anticipates that the Olefins and Derivatives segment to soften in the coming quarter. This is in view of ample supply from South-East Asia, amidst a slowdown in downstream demand leading up to Chinese New Year holidays.
Fertilisers and Methanol:
The Group expects the Fertiliser and Methanol segment to be soft as supplies resume after plant turnarounds amidst lower demand in view of low downstream product prices.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:
a) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM1.24 in 8 months 3 days, total return is 56%
b) GBGAQRS (GABUNGAN AQRS BHD), recommended on 16 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.80, rose to RM1.17 in 2 months 15 days, total return is 46.3%
c) KGB (KELINGTON GROUP BHD), recommended on 23 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.965, rose to RM1.27 in 2 months 9 days, total return is 31.6%
d) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM0.93 (dividend RM0.007) in 6 months 19 days, total return is 31%
e) VIZIONE (VIZIONE HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 30 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.85, rose to RM0.985 in 2 months 5 day, total return is 15.9%
f) BAUTO (BERMAZ AUTO BHD), recommended on 14 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.89, rose to RM2.15 (dividend RM0.0375) in 4 months 17 day, total return is 15.7%
g) HSL (HOCK SENG LEE BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM1.40, rose to RM1.56 (dividend RM0.01) in 8 months 3 days, total return is 12.1%
h) ELKDESA (ELK-DESA RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 18 Nov 18, initial price was RM1.27, rose to RM1.38 (dividend RM0.035) in 3 months 13 days, total return is 11.4%
i) JAKS (JAKS RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 20 Jan 19, initial price was RM0.575, rose to RM0.62 in 1 month 12 days, total return is 7.8%
I wish to share my strategy to readers, hope that they can perform well after reading this. I am using Fundamental Analysis:
the forecasted growth of a company must > 14% per year
I wish to convince readers to learn FA in order to make money from stock market.
I am providing STOCK PICK SERVICE for readers who want to make money from Malaysian stock market. Those who want to subscribe to my mailing list to achieve a good return from stock market, you can contact me at jamesngshare@gmail.com or PM me in my FB page https://web.facebook.com/jamesshareinvest/
In order to facilitate the query of the company and stock picking articles and videos I have written, an index has been produced. Everyone can find company and stock picking articles and videos from https://web.facebook.com/jamesshareinvest/posts/2205699789696763 by date.
James的股票投资James Share Investing Blog: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/
James的股票投资James Share Investing Blog Index: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/blidx.jsp
Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/jamesinvesting
This sharing is purely a discussion and analysis of the sector, buying or selling at your own risk. Please Like and Share this post. Final decision is always yours, thank you.
James Ng
