Hi guys,
Today we will look at BIBLICAL TEACHINGS ON INVESTMENT AGAIN
This time we look at CYCLICALS
Let's turn our to the Book of Ecclesiates Chapter One (Note: The Book of Ecclesiates was written by King Solomon, the wisest man on earth.
Ecclesiastes 1 New King James Version (NKJV)
The Vanity of Life
1 The words of the Preacher, the son of David, king in Jerusalem.
2 “Vanitya] of vanities,” says the Preacher;
“Vanity of vanities, all is vanity.”
3 What profit has a man from all his labor
In which he b]toils under the sun?
4 One generation passes away, and another generation comes;
But the earth abides forever.
5 The sun also rises, and the sun goes down,
And c]hastens to the place where it arose.
6 The wind goes toward the south,
And turns around to the north;
The wind whirls about continually,
And comes again on its circuit.
7 All the rivers run into the sea,
Yet the sea is not full;
To the place from which the rivers come,
There they return again.
8 All things are d]full of labor;
Man cannot express it.
The eye is not satisfied with seeing,
Nor the ear filled with hearing.
9 That which has been is what will be,
That which is done is what will be done,
And there is nothing new under the sun.
10 Is there anything of which it may be said,
“See, this is new”?
It has already been in ancient times before us.
11 There is no remembrance of former things,
Nor will there be any remembrance of things that are to come
By those who will come after.
Cyclical events are everywhere if we will open our eyes to observe them. We live on a planet that is cyclical in shape. And the earth rotates. On its own axis and at the same time around the Sun. Every earth cycle is 24 hours or one day. Every earth circles round the Sun is 365 days.
1) EARTH CYCLE
The sun also rises, and the sun goes down,
And c]hastens to the place where it arose.
There is 12 hours daylight and 12 hours darkness as the earth rotates
2) WIND CYCLE
The wind goes toward the south,
And turns around to the north;
The wind whirls about continually,
And comes again on its circuit.
The North-East Monsoon is currently blowing from November to March
Here in Singapore I like End November, December & January months best as the cool wind from the North pole blows all the way to Singapore.
But too dangerous for fishermen to go out to the sea coasts of Pahang, Trengganu & Kelantan as waves could be as high as 5 meters to 6 meters .
3) WATER CYCLE
All the rivers run into the sea,
Yet the sea is not full;
To the place from which the rivers come,
There they return again.
THESE EVENTS OF NATURE AFFECT HUMAN LIFE AND ACTIVITIES
So we can deduct from here fishermen in East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia prosper when there is no North-east Monsoon. And when Monsoon returns they face bleak times
We also know that when Monsoon comes it brings rain which will cause floods in many parts of Kelantan, Trengganu, Pahang & Johor - leading to yearly floods
4) LIFE'S EVENTS ALSO OCCUR IN CYCLES AND ARE REPETITIVE
That which has been is what will be,
That which is done is what will be done,
And there is nothing new under the sun.
THIS IS HOW WE OBSERVE FROM PAST EXAMPLES & LESSONS. THEN APPLY WITH WISDOM FOR THE PRESENT MOMENT
To succeed we MUST learn from successes of the past. To avoid failure we must also look back to the follies of fools like Hitler and Jesse Livermore
"If I have seen further, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants," Isaac Newton
The metaphor of dwarfs standing on the shoulders of giants (Latin: nanos gigantum humeris insidentes) expresses the meaning of "discovering truth by building on previous discoveries".[1] This concept has been traced to the 12th century, attributed to Bernard of Chartres. Its most familiar expression in English is by Isaac Newton in 1675: "If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants
"discovering truth by building on previous discoveries
Eactly!
Investment Success has already been recorded by men like Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, Howard Marks, Warren Buffet, Walter Schloss, John Neff and many others. Their store of wisdom will help us to achieve success and avoid failures in investments.
NOW IT WAS PETER LYNCH WHO TAUGHT ABOUT INVESTING IN CYCLICAL STOCKS
Why Was Lynch different in his teachings?
Answer: BECAUSE PETER LYNCH HAS A VAST STORE OF INVESTMENT KNOWLEDGE
Look at their experiences
1) Warren Buffet succeeded in his field of concentration in 50 or more stocks
He invests after doing deep deep research into Geico, AMEx, Coca Cola, Walmart & Others
2) Walter Schloss diversified into 300 hundred or more VALUE NET NET STOCKS
Many are misunderstood, impaired or fallen on hard times. But still got HUGE RESIDUAL VALUE OF NET NET ASSETS
3) PETER LYNCH DIVERSIFIED & ROTATED INTO 2,000 SHARES MANY TIMES BUYING & SELLING ACCORDING TO THEIR BUSINESS CYCLES
SO ONLY PETER LYNCH COULD TEACH ABOUT INVESTMENT IN CYCLICALS
TO EACH HIS EXPERIENCE & TO EACH HIS STORE OF KNOWLEDGE & EXPERTISE
Let me illustrate
Suppose there live 3 people in Malaysia & Spore
1) LIVING ONLY IN KUALA LUMPUR
This guy only live his entire life in KL CITY.
Never for once travel out of KL to PJ or Klang
His world view is this. All is land. He has never seen the sea before. The only bodies of water is the Lake Garden
2) LIVING IN SELANGOR
Ha! This guy has gone out to Port Klang. Rode a boat into the open sea for fishing
So he is more knowledgable than the guy in KL City who 'Saw" No Sea.
3) This 3rd Guy lives in Singapore. He works for SIA (Singapore Airline) as an senior engineer
Every year he gets a yearly free ticket on SIA & travels round the world
After working for 40 years (my brother in law) he has seen many countries & experienced snow
NOW THE GUY IN KL AND THE GUY IN SELANGOR HAVE NEVER EXPERIENCED "SNOW" BEFORE
SO THEY VEHEMENTLY DENY THE EXISTENCE OF SNOW?
How come so stupid? Very stupid!!
Same goes for those who deny the investment approach of buying into Cyclicals, Turnarounds or Assets play.
1) CYCLICALS (Like Peter Lynch)
2) Turnaround (Dr Marc Faber)
3) ASSETS PLAY (Walter Schloss is the expert)
They have Zero Knowledge and pass judgments on Turnaround Cyclicals like Oil & Gas Stocks.
(Calvin won't mention their names today. If they still stubborn then next time Calvin will expose their stupidity!)
Many who know nothing about how Asset Plays like TALAM also condemn it.
In fact these 2 Are Very Successful in Investing in Cyclicals = PETER LYNCH Who even beat Warren Buffet
HOWARD MARKS became a Billionaire by Investing in Cyclicals
His masterpiece is "MASTERING THE CYCLICALS"
Why?
BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE SECRET OF THE CYCLICALS IN EARTH ROTATION, THE WIND CYCLE & THE WATER CYCLE & HUMAN NATURE & MARKETS ARE ALSO CYCLICAL
Listen again
4) LIFE'S EVENTS ALSO OCCUR IN CYCLES AND ARE REPETITIVE
That which has been is what will be,
That which is done is what will be done,
And there is nothing new under the sun.
THAT WHICH HAS BEEN IS WHAT SHALL BE
Things happen again and again
Boom bust cycles of Commodities
THAT WHICH IS DONE IS WHAT WILL BE DONE
What happens now will happen again
At market bottom when there is fear just buy like a contrarian
At market peak when they say Dayang will go to Rm4.00 & greed is rampant = Sell
Batches of lambs go for the slaughter again and again repeatedly
And there is nothing new under the sun.
THERE IS NOTHING NEW ABOUT HUMAN NATURE + THE GREED AND THE FEAR
AND ABOVE ALL THE IGNORANCE OF THE MASSES!!!
Now One More Lesson before I close
One generation passes away, and another generation comes;
But the earth abides forever.
The earth rotates, wind cycle returns & water cycle repeats
BUT ONE GENERATION OF PEOPLE PASS AWAY
Life is only 70 years. If good care & medication then life could extend to 80 years or 90 years
But pass away it must. All will die & meet your Maker one day
Another generation comes
In Singapore they practise 2 child policy in early days. Now not enough people to replace the working population. Too late even if Singapore change rules to : Two is enough' 3 or more if you can offord it
Singapore solves this problem by encouraging new immigrants.
For Japan also too late. Due to overworking & pursuit of career the ageing population of Japan cannot replace itself fast enough
So vending (DIY) machines are everywhere in Japan as opposed to imported labour elsewhere
China One Child Policy also in trouble
Why?
Because they violated Divine Mandate
One generation passes away, and another generation comes
But the earth abides forever.
When men and nations infringed into divine mandates of "Be fruitful & multiply & replenish the earth"
they will suffer the consequences later
NOW EVERYTHING REPEATS BUT NOT LIFE DEATH & REINCARNATION (REBORN)
REINCARNATION IS FAKE ACCORDING TO THE BILBLE FOR THESE REASONS:
1) ONE GENERATION PASSES AWAY. AND ANOTHER GENERATION COMES
It does not say, One generation passes away & then reborn again as next generaton
It says "ANOTHER" GENERATION COMES
Then where do the souls of this generation go when they die?
They go to God for judgment
"As it is appointed unto men once to die but after this the judgment"
According to the theory of reincarnation
If a person does good in this life he will be born into a better state in the next life
But if he is bad then he will be born into a worst state in the next life
This world is so bad and wicked by nature that there is a saying, :It takes 3 years to learn & do good but it only takes 3 days to learn & do evil"
Someone said,"No need 3 days lah. You can get a knife and kill someone within half an hour"
Since this world is so bad why population of humans are growing more and more from 3 billions to 7 billions so fast?
It should be humans reincarnate as animals. Why don't we see more elephants & cow walking around everywhere?
So many bad guys should translate to more elephants & cows when they reborn?
That shows that the doctrine of reincarnation is not true not practical
Another reason why reincarnation is not true is this
All lives are humans from highest to lowest levels
Even an ant then got a soul
Have you stepped on any ants today. Did you kill a mosquito? Reincarnation theory say they got souls, you know?
So if you kill any on purpose or by chance you step on any ants you are an instant murderer?
How absurd!! How stupid indeed!)
BUT THIS MOST IMPORTANT TRUTH WHY REINCARNATION IS FAKE IS THIS
GOD'S WORD SAYS< "IT IS APPOINTED TO MEN ONCE TO DIE BUT AFTER THIS THE JUDGMENT"
After death no reincarnation but Judgment"
NOW LOOK AT THE LAST FACT
One generation passes away, and another generation comes
But the earth abides forever.
Everything on the face of the earth is temporal & passing away
ONLY THE EARTH ITSELF ABIDES FOREVER!!
GOD MADE THE EARTH LIMITED
BUT POPULATION GROWTH IS NOT LIMITED
BIBLE PREDICTS EARTH WILL EXPERIENCE POPULATION EXPLOSION
HOW DOES CALVIN KNOW?
ANSWER
FROM WHAT JESUS SAYS, "AS IT WAS IN THE DAYS OF NOAH SO SHALL IT BE IN THE DAYS OF THE SON OF MAN"
JESUS SAID THAT THE CONDITION DURING HIS SECOND COMING IS PREDICATED ON THE TIMES OF NOAH
NOW WHAT HAPPENED IN THE TIME OF NOAH
IN GENESIS CHAPTER 6 IT SAYS
"IT CAME TO PASS WHEN MEN BEGAN TO MULTIPLY ON THE EARTH"
YES MEN WERE MULTIPLYING
SO THERE WILL BE POPULATION EXPLOSION
MEN WILL LIVE LONGER DUE TO IMPROVEMENT OF SCIENCE & MEDICINE
SO EARTH IS FOR EVER AND LIMITED. BUT POPULATION IS UNLIMITED
THERE WILL BE ALWAYS A RISE OF DEMAND OVER LIMITED SUPLLY OF LAND
SO IN THE LONG TERM TREND REAL ESTATE ON EARTH CAN ONLY GO HIGHER & HIGHER DUE TO DEMAND MORE THAN SUPPLY
SO INVESTING IN FREEHOLD LANDED HOUSES ARE SOME GOOD LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
WHAT ELSE?
INVEST IN LANDS ALSO GOOD LONGER TERM
THERE WAS A VERY SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR IN THE US WHO DID THIS
IF HE SEES 2 GROWING SUCCESSFUL CITIE AT THE OPPOSITE COASTS & HE FINDS CHEAP RAW LANDS IN BETWEEN HE WILL START INVESTING
THEN HE JUST SITS AND WAIT AND WAIT TILL YEARS LATER THESE 2 CITIES GROW AND GROW UNTIL THEY REACH HIS LANDBANK
THEN HIS LAND VALUE WILL RISE
HE COULD SELL IT AND CASH OUT OR HE COULD DEVELOP IT HIMSELF TO REAP MORE VALUE
NOW ECRL WILL BE SIGNED BY EARLY APRIL 2019
ALL THE LANDS ALONG ECRL ROUTE WILL RISE UP IN VALUE
THOSE COMPANIES THAT HAVE LANDS ALONG THIS RAIL NETWORK LIKE AZRB, T7 GLOBAL, PRESTAR, LAFARGE CEMENT & TALAM WILL BENEFIT
BEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan
Singapore
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