AIRASIA (5099) 亚洲航空 [AIRASIA X BHD：燃油价格上涨带来挑战，平均基本票价可能承受压力，旅游业增长放缓，尤其是来自中国市场的增长，印尼的运营环境将继续面临挑战]
3Q18 vs 3Q17:
截至二零一八年九月三十日止季度（「第三季度」），这集团录得收入10.774亿令吉，较截至二零一七年九月三十日止季度（「三季度」）收入11.244亿令吉低4％。平均乘客票价减少，但被载客率从3Q17的79％增加到3Q18的80％所抵消。
该集团在3Q18的净经营亏损为2.05亿令吉（2017年第3季度：净亏损6,000万令吉）。这主要是由于平均燃料价格从2017年3季度的每桶65美元增加到3Q18的每桶91美元。此外，这集团已就合营企业应付款项减值达1.382亿令吉（3Q17：无）。
本季度，CASK增长12％至14.62仙，主要原因是平均燃油价格上涨。本季度，与2017年第3季度相比，CASK ex-fuel从9.17仙增加了0.5％至9.21仙。
3Q18 vs 2Q18：
这集团于3Q18录得净亏损1.974亿令吉，而2Q18则录得净亏损5,740万令吉。录得亏损主要由于这集团业务趋势季节性模式及减值所致。
前景：
公司认识到近期燃油价格上涨带来的挑战，并正在努力通过提高辅助收入和机位来缓解这一挑战。新的票价结构已经实施，公司正在积极推动辅助收入，最终将提高收益率，而管理层也将继续专注于监控运营支出，以实现更好的成本效益，以抵消燃油价格的不确定性。
除新航线外，由于核心既定航线的机位预期增加，平均基本票价可能承受压力。董事会也意识到旅游业增长放缓，尤其是来自中国市场的增长，目前中国市场占总收入的25％。
公司预计印尼的运营环境将继续面临挑战，并将于2019年1月停止服务航班。由于燃油价格与一年前相比大幅上涨，以及在主要经营市场激烈的竞争，逆风继续存在。尽管人们对全球贸易紧张局势感到担忧，短期内的需求预计仍将保持健康。
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James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:
1) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM0.845 in 3 months 9 day, total return is 18.2%
2) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM0.935 in 4 months 20 days, total return is 17.6%
3) BAUTO (BERMAZ AUTO BHD), recommended on 14 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.89, rose to RM2.09 in 1 month 7 days, total return is 10.6%
我希望将我的策略分享给读者，希望他们在阅读后能够表现出色。我正在使用基本面分析（Fundamental Analysis）：
预计公司每年的增长率必须> 14％
我想说服读者学习基本面分析FA以便能从股市赚钱。
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[AIRASIA X BHD: challenges posed by the recent rise in fuel prices, average base fare may be under pressure, deceleration of growth in tourism sector, especially coming from the China market segment, operational environment to remain challenging in Indonesia]
3Q18 vs 3Q17:
The Group recorded revenue of RM1,077.4 million for the quarter ended 30 Sept 2018 ("3Q18"), 4% lower than revenue of RM1,124.4 million for the quarter ended 30 Sept 2017 ("3Q17"). The increase of load factor from 79% in 3Q17 to 80% in 3Q18, is mitigated by the reduction of average passenger fare.
The net operating loss for the group in 3Q18 is RM205 million (3Q17: Net loss RM60 million). This was mainly contributed by increase in average fuel price from USD 65 per barrel in 3Q17 to USD 91 per barrel in 3Q18. In addition, the Group has provided an impairment on amount due from joint venture amounting to RM138.2 million (3Q17: Nil).
During the quarter, CASK increased 12% to 14.62 sen mainly due to increase in average fuel price. During the quarter, CASK ex-fuel has increased by 0.5% from 9.17 sen to 9.21 sen as compared to 3Q17.
3Q18 vs 2Q18:
The Group recorded a net loss of RM197.4 million in 3Q18, compared to the net loss of RM57.4 million in 2Q18. The recorded losses are mainly due to impairment and seasonal pattern in line with the business trend of the Group.
Prospects:
The Company recognises the challenges posed by the recent rise in fuel prices, and efforts are being made to mitigate this by boosting ancillary revenue and capacity. A new fares structure has been implemented and the company is actively driving up ancillary revenue, which will ultimately improve yields, while Management also remains focused on monitoring operating expenses to achieve better cost efficiencies to offset uncertainty in fuel price.
Average base fare may be under pressure due to the expected increase in capacity on core established routes, in addition to new routes. The Board is also aware of the deceleration of growth in tourism sector, especially coming from the China market segment which currently contributes to 25% of total revenue.
The Company foresees the operational environment to remain challenging in Indonesia and will cease schedule service flights in January 2019. Head winds continue to persist in the form of cost pressures arising from significantly elevated fuel prices compared to a year ago, as well as keen competition in key operating markets. Not withstanding concerns over global trade tensions, demand in the short term is expected to remain healthy.
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James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:
1) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM0.845 in 3 months 9 day, total return is 18.2%
2) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM0.935 in 4 months 20 days, total return is 17.6%
3) BAUTO (BERMAZ AUTO BHD), recommended on 14 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.89, rose to RM2.09 in 1 month 7 days, total return is 10.6%
I wish to share my strategy to readers, hope that they can perform well after reading this. I am using Fundamental Analysis:
the forecasted growth of a company must > 14% per year
I wish to convince readers to learn FA in order to make money from stock market.
I am providing STOCK PICK SERVICE for readers who want to make money from Malaysian stock market. Those who want to subscribe to my mailing list to achieve a good return from stock market, you can contact me at jamesngshare@gmail.com or PM me in my FB page https://web.facebook.com/jamesshareinvest/
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James Ng
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