各位SERBADK股东，大家安好！笔者想恭喜大家有在SERBADK rm3.00左右持有/增持该股。我也同样会继续收住SERBADK。
这一次，笔者想聊一聊LCTITAN。LCTITAN 在大概半年前上市以IPO of RM6.50。在上市不久后公布的第三业绩受影响而被人们抛售至RM4.30。之后，回弹rm4.60-4.70之间价位徘徊。至今，才安然回到 rm5.00 ，距离IPO price 还算远。
| Corporate Name | : LOTTE CHEMICAL TITAN HOLDING BERHAD |
| Symbol & Code | : LCTITAN (5284) |
| Industry | : Industrial Products |
The new ordinary shares rank pari passu in all respects with existing ordinary shares
of the LCTITAN.
LCTITAN also repurchased 34,808,000 of its issued ordinary shares from the open market
at an average price of RM6.50 per share during the current interim period.
The total consideration paid for the purchases was RM226,252,000 and this was funded through the IPO proceeds. The shares repurchased are being held as treasury shares in accordance with Section 127 of the Companies Act 2016.
LCTITAN involved in petrochemical industry. The petrochemical industry and the operating margins in this industry have historically been cyclical. Changes in supply and demand, both domestically and internationally (including in Southeast Asia, China and other markets the Group sells to), and resulting utilisation rates are key factors that influence the cycle and profitability of the petrochemical industry.
The demand and supply balance may favour one position or the other for an extended period of time and may not rebalance quickly.
For management of LCTITAN, LCTITAN is organised into business units based on its products and has 2 reportable segments, as follows:
1) Olefins and derivative products – Manufacture and sale of olefins and derivative products.
2) Polyolefin products – Manufacture and sale of polyolefin products.
LCTITAN provides a financial guarantee to a bank for credit facilities granted to an
associate. The fair value of the guarantee is not expected to be material due to the following reasons:
1) The likelihood is remote that the guaranteed party will default within the guaranteed Period.
2) The estimated loss exposure to the Company arising from the outstanding credit facility that is not recovered if the guaranteed party were to default is not expected to be significant as the guaranteed party has net assets in excess of the outstanding amount of credit facilities.
Overall market started off moderately in Q3 2017 after the Hari Raya holidays. Market demand rebounded by late July following the Chinese government’s announcement to ban importation of plastic scrap by end of 2017. The capacities taken offline caused by Hurricane Harvey in United States had temporarily affected supply from United States, especially to Latin America.
目前为止，LCTITAN从它上市以来股价已便宜整-21.47%
http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5284The market was briefly lifted up as concern on the supply disruption from US lingered. Meanwhile, supply from other regions was reportedly diverted to Latin America to fill the void. LCTITAN plant utilization was lower at average 77% compared to average 92% in corresponding quarter. This was mainly due to statutory routine turnaround (every 5-6 years) for Cracker 1 plant in Malaysia and Indonesia polyethylene plants load was reduced during the quarter due to poor polyethylene economics as a result of tight ethylene supply and high cost.
Variation of results against the preceding quarter
LCTITAN revenue rose by RM 239.9 million or 13.5% to RM 2,016.2 million primarily due to increase in sales volume driven by higher production volume.Profit before tax increased by RM 117.5 million or 92.2% due to improved sales volume and margin spread compared to Q2.
Overall average production cost decreased on lower feedstock cost and improved plant efficiency.
Plants utilization rates improved from average 71% to 77% from 2nd Qr. to 3rd Qr. due to stable plant operation compared to Q2 whereby plant operation was affected by water interruption.
LCTITAN Quarter Report History since Listed.
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RM’000
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RM | |||
| 公布日期 | 业绩 | 营业额 | 净利 | 每股盈利 | NTA |
| 26/10/2017 | 3rd Qr. | 2,016,169 | 230,312 | 10.42 | 5.06 |
| 31/7/2017 | 2nd Qr. | 1,776,280 | 113,616 | 6.58 | 4.59 |
THE Prospects of LCTITAN in 2018/2019
The results of LCTITAN operations for the financial year ending 31 December 2017 are expected to be primarily influenced by the following factors:1) The demand and supply balance of petrochemical products in the market.
2) Management’s ability to maximise production outputs and operational efficiency.
3) Feedstock prices which is correlated to crude oil prices.
LCTITAN anticipate that the petrochemicals market will continue to be resilient in the near term with demand growth for petrochemicals to outpace the rate of new supply additions in the region.
In Q4 2017, LCTITAN expect demand for polyolefin products to be stable with Latin America market continue to look out for supply outside of United States until supply from United States is stable post hurricane impact. While olefins and derivative are expected to be slightly bearish as supply improved on the completion of regional cracker planned turnaround.
LCTITAN expect that production output in 4th Qr. 2017 to be higher compared to 3rd Qr. in view of NO MAJOR PLANNED PLANT SHUT DOWN and THE EXPECTED COMMISSIONING of LCTITAN NEW TE3 PLANT in 4th Qr. 2017.
LCTITAN is expects our performance for the financial year ending 31 December 2017 to be positive.
Based on the LCTITAN ‘s IPO price of RM6.50 per share, the gross proceeds of RM3,770 million was raised from the Public Issue on 11 July 2017 in the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad.
RM 226.3 million of the proceeds were utilised for purchase of treasury shares. LCTITAN intends to utilise the remaining proceeds in the following manner:
| Funding LCTITAN’s Projects | Estimated timeframe | RM’000 | Actual utilisation 30/9/2017 (RM’000) |
Percentage utilised (%) |
| 1. Integrated Petrochemical Facility | Within 36 months | 2,588,044 | – | – |
| 2. TE 3 Project | Within 12 months | 220,000 | 220,000 | 100% |
| 3. PP3 Project | Within 12 months | 620,000 | 85,000 | 14% |
| Estimated listing expenses | Within 6 months. | 115,704 | 79,250 | 68% |
| 3,543,748 | 384,250 | 11% |
The status and progress of each of the PROJECTS as at 19 October 2017 are as follows:
1) INTEGRATED PETROCHEMICAL FACILITY
Currently conducting the Front End Engineering Design (FEED) study for the project todetermine, among others, the conceptual design and a more detailed breakdown of the
costs to be incurred and procurement of approvals and licences.
The project is expected to be completed on schedule.
2) TE3 PROJECT
The project have achieved 100% mechanical completion and expected for commercial operation in 4th Qr. of 2017.3) PP3 PROJECT
The expected commercial operation of the project is in SECOND HALF of 2018.LCTITAN’s Borrowings.
As at December 2016, LCTITAN has borrowing of RM75,365,000. USD denominated term loan of USD16,800,000 equivalent to RM75,365,000 was fully settled in September 2017.SO, as at December 2017, LCTITAN don’t have any Borrowing , in other word LCTITAN is “ZERO Borrowing”!
很牛–净现金公司
CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS at end of period of 30/9/2017 is RM3,609,465,000 或RM3.609 billion 现金牛比起同期的30/9/2016 的现金 RM1,025,581,000 或RM1.025 billion 增长251.94%之多！NET CASH GENERATED from/(used in) financing activities of LCTITAN 高达RM3,270,270,000 比起同期的负–(RM69,796,000)进步整整5585%！
Peer同行比一比
| PCHEM | LCTITAN | |
| 市值 | RM65.52 bil | RM11.562 bil |
| 股本/股数 | 8.0 bil 张票 | 2.308 bil 张票 |
| 每股盈利 | 51.99 cent | – |
| 比益本 | 15.75x | – |
| ROE | 15.11% | – |
| http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5284 |
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| http://malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=P&securityCode=5183 |
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假设我们没有计算在Funding LCTITAN’s Projects 的推动盈利估计，保守看待LCTITIAN 可在这2017财政年录取EPS 为40.8 cent 至41.8 cent.
(1st.Qr.+2nd Qr. + 3rd Qr. = 29.8 cent. 笔者预料即将公布 4th Qr. EPS 维持在11-12cent)
2017财政年LCTITAN 目标价
| EPS | PE 比益本 | 目标价 |
| rm0.408 | 15x | RM6.12 |
| rm0.418 | 15x | RM6.27 |
以上目标价推算没纳入LCTITAN增长业务盈利。大约还有一个月时间左右，LCTITAN即将公布第四业绩。
今日毕市收报rm5.01, trading PE of 12.3x still far below 15x or maybe more than 15x.
LCTITAN expect that production output in 4th Qr. 2017 to be higher compared to 3rd Qr. in view of NO MAJOR PLANNED PLANT SHUT DOWN and THE EXPECTED COMMISSIONING of LCTITAN NEW TE3 PLANT in 4th Qr. 2017.以上说明LCTITAN的第四业绩受看好，一切从来临的第四业绩转强！接下来就不用笔者一一的解释2018财政年盈利推算因2018年开始LCTITAN的新厂陆陆续续为LCTITAN做出盈利贡献。
估计2018盈利至少可为LCTITAN盈利增加30%-50%。
2018年每股盈利介于rm0.57 至rm0.59.
目前，还未真真有Research Report Cover LCTITAN in 2018-2019-2020。
到了2019年，LCTITAN所有新厂全面投入运作，您说LCTITAN会不会过RM12？笔者相信会。
共勉之！
2018财政年LCTITAN 目标价
| EPS | PE 比益本 | 目标价 |
| rm0.57 | 15x | RM8.55 |
| rm0.59 | 15x | RM8.85 |
2018财政年LCTITAN 目标价
| EPS | PE 比益本 | 目标价 |
| rm0.57 | 17x | RM9.69 |
| rm0.59 | 17x | RM10.03 |
https://i3investor.wordpress.com/2018/01/04/lctitan%E4%B9%90%E5%A4%A9%E5%A4%A7%E8%85%BE%E4%BA%AE%E8%B7%AF%E7%82%B9%E7%87%83/
