--再穷，鸡蛋总是不会少，
日常所需品不怕经济低迷，持有也有信心。
目前3个季度eps达13 sen,估计Q4 EPS=4SEN,
则2015 eps=17 sen,pe=10,stock price=rm1.70
--a)LAYHONG 9385 ,RM8.18 ,PE=22.3 的高pe成交下,
b)ql 7084 rm4.54 ,pe=28.5
c)cab 7174 rm1.69 ,pe=15.8,
d)ltkm 7085 rm1.50 ,pe=5 ,
e)huatlai 7141 rm4.97 pe=7.3
f)pwf 7134 rm1.28 pe=11.2
g))teoseng 7252 rm1.32 ,pe=7.23 (是不是值得进入,haha)
---还有年关到了,对鸡旦大须求呀.layhong 每股5 元被曰本公司收购部分股权,eps=36.6sen ,pe=13 ,
因此teoseng eps=17sen,pe=13,stock price=rm2.21 ,参考一下.
1)
雞蛋跌價‧潮成賺益難有起色
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 1 Dec 2015, 11:54 AM
2015-12-01 11:42
（吉隆坡30日訊）潮成資本（TEOSENG，7252，主板消費品組）第三季業績成長不如預期，分析員相信雞蛋價格走跌將抵銷能源成本減少利多，未來賺益料難有重大起色。
雞蛋價格下跌影響潮成資本9個月淨利表現低於預期，因此大馬研究調低其2015至2017年盈利預測19至24%，以反映產品賺益減少現況。
展望未來，大馬研究認為，2016年竣工的生物發電廠帶來的能源成本節省將被雞蛋價格走低抵銷，賺益不會有太大改善。
不過，大馬研究指出，該公司估值依然十分吸引，現10倍本益比較同儕平均的14倍低32%，因此維持其“買進”評級，但目標價下調至2令吉45仙。
股價：1令吉53仙
總股本：3億零1千225股
市值：4億零500萬1千654令吉
30天日均成交量：176萬股
最新季度營業額：1億零247萬2千令吉
最新季度盈虧：淨利1千197萬2千令吉
每股淨資產：67仙
本益比：－
週息率：3.23%
大股東：龍合控股（51.12%）（星洲日報／財經）
總股本：3億零1千225股
市值：4億零500萬1千654令吉
30天日均成交量：176萬股
最新季度營業額：1億零247萬2千令吉
最新季度盈虧：淨利1千197萬2千令吉
每股淨資產：67仙
本益比：－
週息率：3.23%
大股東：龍合控股（51.12%）（星洲日報／財經）
2)
Teo Seng Capital - Key takeaways from corporate luncheon BUY
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Thu, 19 Nov 2015, 11:27 AM
- We reiterate BUY on Teo Seng Capital (TSC) with an unchanged fair
value of RM2.45/share. We continue to peg our valuation to a
fully-diluted FY16F PE of 13x.
- We hosted a corporate luncheon with key personnel from TSC and institutional funds yesterday, and came away assured of the group’s earnings prospects and position as a leading egg producer. We continue to like TSC for its undemanding valuations, robust earnings growth (3-year CAGR: +15%) and expanding dividend payout (historically 25%, policy: 20%-50%).
- Key takeaways from the luncheon:
- TSC’s present valuations are undemanding. The stock is currently trading at an attractive fully-diluted FY16F PE of only 8x. This is a 47% discount to the average PE of 15x for the consumer companies under our coverage.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 19 Nov 2015
3)
- We hosted a corporate luncheon with key personnel from TSC and institutional funds yesterday, and came away assured of the group’s earnings prospects and position as a leading egg producer. We continue to like TSC for its undemanding valuations, robust earnings growth (3-year CAGR: +15%) and expanding dividend payout (historically 25%, policy: 20%-50%).
- Key takeaways from the luncheon:
(1) Management clarified that its flattish YoY PBT for 9MFY15 and
corresponding 1.5ppt margin contraction was primarily due to low egg
prices (particularly in 2Q and a weaker-than-expected rebound in 3Q). We
understand that a 1 sen decline in egg prices results in a RM1mil/month
decline in the group’s net profit. Looking ahead, management expects
prices to rise in 4QFY15 in tandem with year-end festivities, and to
average at 30 sen/egg for FY15F and 31 sen/egg for FY16F.
(2) The group’s expansion plans remain on track. Although it only added
one new farm in FY15F (in Nov; target was 2), it still met its
production capacity of 3.3mil eggs per day as it had added new ‘houses’
to its existing farms instead of building a new farm. We understand that
land for its FY16F’s expansion (1 farm, capacity +13%) has been
secured.
(3) Demand from Singapore, to which it exports 30% of its egg
production, remains robust. While the group can still gain from the
stronger SGD vs RM, we note that the price differential between the two
markets has narrowed to 2 sen/egg from 5 sen/egg just two months ago.
(4) Feedstock prices are expected to remain low and stable moving
forward. In 9MFY15, corn and soybean prices were lower by 20% and 17%
YoY, respectively. However, after forex adjustments, they were only
lower by 1.2% and 1.5%. The group has bought forward its raw materials
up to 1QFY16.
(5) TSC’s superior margins are expected to remain stable. Any price
weakness may be offset by energy cost savings from its biogas plant-ups,
use of natural gas for egg tray production, and margin enhancements
from external sales of paper egg trays (GP margin of 20+%). It foresees
no impact from the minimum wage hike next year as most of its workers
are paid above that level (at ~RM1,400).
- We leave our FY15F-FY17F earnings estimates unchanged for now in view
of our recent downward revision (-19% to -24%) post the release of its
9MFY15 results.- TSC’s present valuations are undemanding. The stock is currently trading at an attractive fully-diluted FY16F PE of only 8x. This is a 47% discount to the average PE of 15x for the consumer companies under our coverage.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 19 Nov 2015
3)
Teo Seng Capital - 9MFY15 weighed down by soft prices BUY
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Wed, 18 Nov 2015, 09:51 AM
- We reaffirm BUY on Teo Seng Capital (TSC) but with a lower fair value
of RM2.45/share post its weaker-thanexpected 3QFY15 results. Our fair
value is based on an unchanged fully-diluted PE of 13x over
rolled-forward FY16F earnings.
- TSC’s 9MFY15 results came in below expectations. The group reported a 3QFY15 net profit of RM12mil (QoQ: +65%; YoY: +11%) to bring its 9MFY15 earnings to RM37mil (YoY: +20%). A single-tier interim dividend of 2.5 sen/share was declared.
- In light of this, we have revised downwards our FY15FFY17F earnings forecasts by 19%-24% to reflect its softer margins (-2ppts). Nonetheless, we note that its margins are still superior to that of its peers (EBITDA margin of 19% vs. peers’ average of 15%).
- The negative variance vis-à-vis our forecast can be primarily attributed to lower-than-expected average egg prices for the cumulative nine months (29.5 sen/egg vs our projected 32 sen/egg). Volumes were firm, with the quantity of eggs sold being 11% higher YoY thanks to the addition of its new farm (+400,000 eggs per day) in November last year.
- On a sequential basis, TSC’s earnings had improved as anticipated. Note that a better comparison for its QoQ performance would be its profit before tax (+37%) in view of its abnormally low tax rate (1%) in 3QFY15. We understand that this was due to the availability of a oneoff tax incentive (~RM3.5mil) from its increased exports to Singapore.
- The rebound in TSC’s earnings was in tandem with the recovery of egg prices over the quarter, i.e. from an average of 26 sen/egg in 2QFY15 to 29 sen/egg in 3QFY15 (peak was 34 sen/egg) as well as new capacity from the addition of new houses to its existing farms in July.
- Feed prices have also been on a downward trend. TSC’s corn and soybean input prices were still lower by 12% and 7% QoQ, respectively, after adjusting for the currency impact.
- Looking ahead, we do not expect TSC’s margins to contract further as any price weakness may be offset by energy cost savings from its usage of natural gas (vs. LPG previously) for its egg tray production and upcoming biogas plant-ups (early FY16).
- TSC’s valuations remain compelling. The stock is currently trading at an attractive fully-diluted forward PE of only 10x. This is a 32% discount to the average PE of 14x for the consumer companies under our coverage. Since the order-driven sell-down in August, TSC’s share price has been on an upward trend, rising 43%.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 17 Nov 2015
4)
· TEOSENG (Stopped Out @ RM1.58). We previously recommended a ‘Trading Buy’ call on TEOSENG when the share price appeared to set to ride on the recent hype on the rising egg prices to complete its ‘Rounding Bottom’ chart pattern. However, the share price failed to play out according to our expectations as it broke down from our stop-loss level of RM1.58 to form a ‘Cup and Handle’ chart pattern. On top of that, the price weakness could possibly be prolonged from here, underpinned by the neutralization process of both RSI and Stochastic from their respective overbought territory. Hence, we are stopping out on this counter but will re-look when the share price forms a more compelling technical picture.
5)
- TSC’s 9MFY15 results came in below expectations. The group reported a 3QFY15 net profit of RM12mil (QoQ: +65%; YoY: +11%) to bring its 9MFY15 earnings to RM37mil (YoY: +20%). A single-tier interim dividend of 2.5 sen/share was declared.
- In light of this, we have revised downwards our FY15FFY17F earnings forecasts by 19%-24% to reflect its softer margins (-2ppts). Nonetheless, we note that its margins are still superior to that of its peers (EBITDA margin of 19% vs. peers’ average of 15%).
- The negative variance vis-à-vis our forecast can be primarily attributed to lower-than-expected average egg prices for the cumulative nine months (29.5 sen/egg vs our projected 32 sen/egg). Volumes were firm, with the quantity of eggs sold being 11% higher YoY thanks to the addition of its new farm (+400,000 eggs per day) in November last year.
- On a sequential basis, TSC’s earnings had improved as anticipated. Note that a better comparison for its QoQ performance would be its profit before tax (+37%) in view of its abnormally low tax rate (1%) in 3QFY15. We understand that this was due to the availability of a oneoff tax incentive (~RM3.5mil) from its increased exports to Singapore.
- The rebound in TSC’s earnings was in tandem with the recovery of egg prices over the quarter, i.e. from an average of 26 sen/egg in 2QFY15 to 29 sen/egg in 3QFY15 (peak was 34 sen/egg) as well as new capacity from the addition of new houses to its existing farms in July.
- Feed prices have also been on a downward trend. TSC’s corn and soybean input prices were still lower by 12% and 7% QoQ, respectively, after adjusting for the currency impact.
- Looking ahead, we do not expect TSC’s margins to contract further as any price weakness may be offset by energy cost savings from its usage of natural gas (vs. LPG previously) for its egg tray production and upcoming biogas plant-ups (early FY16).
- TSC’s valuations remain compelling. The stock is currently trading at an attractive fully-diluted forward PE of only 10x. This is a 32% discount to the average PE of 14x for the consumer companies under our coverage. Since the order-driven sell-down in August, TSC’s share price has been on an upward trend, rising 43%.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 17 Nov 2015
4)
· TEOSENG (Stopped Out @ RM1.58). We previously recommended a ‘Trading Buy’ call on TEOSENG when the share price appeared to set to ride on the recent hype on the rising egg prices to complete its ‘Rounding Bottom’ chart pattern. However, the share price failed to play out according to our expectations as it broke down from our stop-loss level of RM1.58 to form a ‘Cup and Handle’ chart pattern. On top of that, the price weakness could possibly be prolonged from here, underpinned by the neutralization process of both RSI and Stochastic from their respective overbought territory. Hence, we are stopping out on this counter but will re-look when the share price forms a more compelling technical picture.
5)
Teo Seng Capital - Egg prices stage a rebound BUY
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Wed, 30 Sep 2015, 10:03 AM
- We maintain BUY on Teo Seng Capital (TSC) with an unchanged fair value
of RM2.70/share. This is based on an unchanged fully-diluted PE of 13x
FY15F EPS.
- From our recent discussions with management, we learnt that egg prices have gradually rebounded from 28 sen/egg in 2QFY15 to 34 sen/egg over 3QFY15. Note that the latter was the average egg price in 4QFY14 and 1QFY15 and is the highest historically.
- The upward trend in egg prices is positive for TSC. Although we had earlier anticipated prices to tick up in tandem with increased domestic demand during the festive periods (eg. Hari Raya), we did not expect the quantum to be as large. The supply backlog has also eased, thanks to higher exports to Hong Kong.
- Egg prices had declined by 24% QoQ back in 2QFY15 due to seasonally low demand (i.e. absence of festivities and the fasting month in June/July) and to a smaller extent, the impact of GST on overall consumer sentiment.
- Interestingly, we also understand that the price of its egg exports to Singapore (~30% of total production) is presently as high as 38 sen/egg. This is unusual given that the price differential between the domestic and Singapore market is typically between 1-2 sen/egg. The wider spread is mainly attributable to the current weakness of the RM vis-à-vis the SGD (YTD: -31%).
- We make no changes to our FY15F-FY17F earnings estimates unchanged for now. The rebound in egg prices alongside the timely addition of two new farms in July and November (+25% capacity from 3.1mil eggs per day) bode well for TSC’s 2HFY15 earnings.
- Post its recent order-driven sell-down, TSC’s share price has been on an upward trend, rising 31% in the past month. The stock is currently trading at an attractive fully-diluted forward PE of only 7x. This is a steep 53% discount to the average PE of 15x for the consumer companies under our coverage.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 30 Sep 2015
6)
Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: TEOSENG (28/09/2015)
7)
- From our recent discussions with management, we learnt that egg prices have gradually rebounded from 28 sen/egg in 2QFY15 to 34 sen/egg over 3QFY15. Note that the latter was the average egg price in 4QFY14 and 1QFY15 and is the highest historically.
- The upward trend in egg prices is positive for TSC. Although we had earlier anticipated prices to tick up in tandem with increased domestic demand during the festive periods (eg. Hari Raya), we did not expect the quantum to be as large. The supply backlog has also eased, thanks to higher exports to Hong Kong.
- Egg prices had declined by 24% QoQ back in 2QFY15 due to seasonally low demand (i.e. absence of festivities and the fasting month in June/July) and to a smaller extent, the impact of GST on overall consumer sentiment.
- Interestingly, we also understand that the price of its egg exports to Singapore (~30% of total production) is presently as high as 38 sen/egg. This is unusual given that the price differential between the domestic and Singapore market is typically between 1-2 sen/egg. The wider spread is mainly attributable to the current weakness of the RM vis-à-vis the SGD (YTD: -31%).
- We make no changes to our FY15F-FY17F earnings estimates unchanged for now. The rebound in egg prices alongside the timely addition of two new farms in July and November (+25% capacity from 3.1mil eggs per day) bode well for TSC’s 2HFY15 earnings.
- Post its recent order-driven sell-down, TSC’s share price has been on an upward trend, rising 31% in the past month. The stock is currently trading at an attractive fully-diluted forward PE of only 7x. This is a steep 53% discount to the average PE of 15x for the consumer companies under our coverage.
Source: AmeSecurities Research - 30 Sep 2015
6)
Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: TEOSENG (28/09/2015)
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Mon, 28 Sep 2015, 10:02 AM
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 23, 2015.
Valuation: 1.50, Fundamental: 1.90
TEO Seng (Fundamental: 1.5/3, Valuation: 1.9/3) is predominantly
involved in layer farming — rearing chickens to produce eggs. With
current production of 3 million eggs per day, it is one of the largest
egg producer in the country. The company has its own in-house feed mill
and also manufactures animal health products.
We like Teo Seng as a well-managed company, with higher than industry
average profit margin (trailing 12-month net margin of 13.1%) and lower
than average gearing of 29.7%. It is also fairly inexpensive, trading at
trailing 12-month P/E and EV/EBITDA of 7.96 and 5.48 times,
respectively.
Whilst demand for eggs is fairly resilient — and should grow steadily —
earnings are affected by fluctuating egg prices and costs for feed
stock, mainly corn and soybean meal, which are denominated in US
dollar.
Teo Seng’s share price rallied in 1Q2015, buoyed by higher egg prices
and lower feed costs. But its shares then slumped to the current RM1.42,
down 35.75% from a peak of RM2.21. This follows weak 2Q2015 earnings
results where a sharp fall in egg prices — Grade “A” dropped from 37
cents to 29 cents — saw earnings drop 58.44% q-q to RM7.3 million.
Positively, egg prices are on the rebound and we expect better
performance in 2H2015. This could be the catalyst for a fresh rally. Teo
Seng has hedged about one year’s supply of animal feed in 2Q2015; thus,
impact from recent weakening of ringgit will be minimal. It also
exports about 27.75% of the revenue to Singapore and should benefit from
the stronger Singapore dollar.
The company is expanding capacity, which should underpin longer-term
growth. Dividends, however, may be cut back this year, in view of the
higher capex. Teo Seng has a dividend policy to pay out 20-50% of annual
net profits. We estimate dividends at roughly 5 sen per share — after
taking into account the 1-for-2 bonus issue in January. That will earn
shareholders a fairly decent yield of 3.52%.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/insider-asia%E2%80%99s-stock-day-teo-seng-capital-bhd
Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: TEOSENG (28/09/2015)
7)
雞蛋產量將揚25%‧潮成前景看俏
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 24 Jul 2015, 05:43 PM
2015-07-24 17:28
（吉隆坡22日訊）潮成資本（TEOSENG，7252，主板消費品組）2座新農場下半年投運後，雞蛋產量料增25%，加上能源成本降低的利好，分析員看好該公司前景。
今年增2新農場
大馬研究近日會晤該公司管理層後表示，該公司將在7月及11月增設2座新農場，屆時雞蛋產量可提高25%。目前，每年的產量為310萬粒。
管理層也表示，生產蛋托（egg tray）的能源已在5月份從石油天然氣（LPG）轉換成天然氣，預期每年可節省150萬令吉的能源成本。
此外，管理層指出，目前建造中5座生物氣體工廠進展滿意，首座工廠可在今年完工，預期每年可節省200萬令吉的電費。
管理層透露，基於季節性及消費稅的影響，導致雞蛋價格從每粒34仙高峰下滑24%，目前蛋價仍高於24仙的平均收支平衡價格。
分析員預期第二季淨利將放緩，但有信心在下半年在節慶日子需求及兩座新農場啟用的帶動下，該公司淨利將回彈。
分析員說，該公司早前趁大豆及玉米價格放緩時，已經將遠期購買合約從3個月延長至6個月（至2015年12月），因此即使保守假設美元匯率為3令吉70仙，其飼料成本仍比目前現貨價低11%至21%。
分析員預期該公司營運盈利（EBITDA）賺幅可維持在21%。
大馬研究表示，該公司產品需求每年取得3%至5%穩定的成長、具良好管理層、本益比低及3年23%的複合成長率（CAGR），加上提高派息率，維持該公司“買進”評級及2令吉70仙的目標價不變。（星洲日報／財經‧報導：謝汪潮）
8)
每股5元场外购13.8% NH Foods 增持丽鸿至22.88%
Published by 南洋网 at 2016-01-23 12:32:00
（吉隆坡22日讯）丽鸿（LAYHONG，9385，主板消费产品股）今日证实，大股东日本NHFoods周四在场外，以每股5令吉收购800万股或13.8%股权。
该售价相等于丽鸿周四闭市价8令吉的折价37.5%。
在收购该批股权之后，NH Foods如今的持股率将从原本的9.08%，提高至22.88%。
由此，NH Foods不但可在公司拥有高度影响力，还能根据持股比例，把投资所得纳入账目上。
早前《星报》引述消息透露，尽管NHFoods刚在近期崛起为大股东，但丽鸿依然很受国际业者青睐，持续收到缔结合作的献议。
国际业者锁定小家禽商
这些国际食品业者正锁定小型，但发展良好的家禽公司，来展开合作，从而能够更快速地扩展业务。
“从科技来看，丽鸿和潮成集团（TEOSENG，7252，主板消费产品股）是国外企业看好的目标，其中，丽鸿不仅拥有强劲的NutriPlus品牌，还能出口鸡蛋到新加坡，并具备鸡蛋相关专才。”
消息称，NutriPlus是我国顶尖的品牌之一，因此，NH Foods或其他潜在伙伴可借助该品牌，出口到我国和新加坡市场。
此外，另一家家禽公司CAB机构（CAB，7174，主板消费产品股），共有878万股或5.83%股权，于周二（19日）在场外易手，售价为每股1.68令吉。
消息相信，这批股权的买家，就是印尼三林集团（Salim Group）旗下KMP投资公司。
8)
每股5元场外购13.8% NH Foods 增持丽鸿至22.88%
Published by 南洋网 at 2016-01-23 12:32:00
（吉隆坡22日讯）丽鸿（LAYHONG，9385，主板消费产品股）今日证实，大股东日本NHFoods周四在场外，以每股5令吉收购800万股或13.8%股权。
该售价相等于丽鸿周四闭市价8令吉的折价37.5%。
在收购该批股权之后，NH Foods如今的持股率将从原本的9.08%，提高至22.88%。
由此，NH Foods不但可在公司拥有高度影响力，还能根据持股比例，把投资所得纳入账目上。
早前《星报》引述消息透露，尽管NHFoods刚在近期崛起为大股东，但丽鸿依然很受国际业者青睐，持续收到缔结合作的献议。
国际业者锁定小家禽商
这些国际食品业者正锁定小型，但发展良好的家禽公司，来展开合作，从而能够更快速地扩展业务。
“从科技来看，丽鸿和潮成集团（TEOSENG，7252，主板消费产品股）是国外企业看好的目标，其中，丽鸿不仅拥有强劲的NutriPlus品牌，还能出口鸡蛋到新加坡，并具备鸡蛋相关专才。”
消息称，NutriPlus是我国顶尖的品牌之一，因此，NH Foods或其他潜在伙伴可借助该品牌，出口到我国和新加坡市场。
此外，另一家家禽公司CAB机构（CAB，7174，主板消费产品股），共有878万股或5.83%股权，于周二（19日）在场外易手，售价为每股1.68令吉。
消息相信，这批股权的买家，就是印尼三林集团（Salim Group）旗下KMP投资公司。
http://kongsenger.blogspot.my/2016/01/7252-teoseng-rm132-buy-in.html
