CARLSBG (2836) - Carlsberg Brewery (M) - Driven by strong 9M results
Target RM13.22 (Stock Rating: HOLD)
FY14 core net profit was 8% above our full-year forecast and 9% above that of consensus. FY14 revenue rose due to a better performance in Singapore, while net profit jumped due to the better average selling prices, product mix and operating efficiency in Malaysia, as well as the recovery from the stock rationalisation exercise in Singapore and stronger profits from associates. We increase our FY15-16 earnings forecasts by 7% and our DDM-based target price. We maintain our Hold call on CAB. CAB declared a final and special single-tier dividend of 66 sen per share, bringing the full-year DPS to 71 sen – ahead of our forecast of 64 sen. We prefer Thai Beverage.
Better full-year results
Carlsberg Brewery’s (CAB) FY14 revenue rose by 5.1% yoy, while net profit increased by 15% yoy. Given that Malaysia’s sales were flat yoy (+0.2% pt), the stronger topline was attributed to the stronger sales in Singapore (+23.2% yoy). Singapore’s sales gained traction following the completion of the stock rationalisation programme that started in 2Q13 and ended in Jan 14. There was also a positive impact from the acquisition of Maybev in Apr 2014. Despite the flat revenue from Malaysia that made up 74.7% of total revenue and the higher duty paid due to the change in valuation method, net profit still grew by 15%. This was due to ongoing cost management efforts, higher selling prices, better product mix in Malaysia (operating profit margin: +1.6% pts yoy), the low base effect from Singapore as it was impacted by the stock rationalisation exercise in the previous year as well as the acquisition of Maybev this year. The stronger net profit was also driven by stronger profit (+87% yoy to RM11m) from its Sri Lankan associate – the company no longer imports beer products following its capacity expansion. The overall EBIT margin gained 1.3% pts yoy to 16.4%.
4Q did not do so well
Compared to 9MFY14, CAB did not perform as well in 4QFY14. While revenue increased 9.3% yoy, net profit declined 1.7% yoy. The stronger topline was driven by both Malaysia (+3.6% due to higher selling prices and better product mix) and Singapore (+27.6% mainly due to the completion of the stock rationalisation programme) markets. The decline in bottomline was impacted by higher marketing costs and excise duty in Singapore.
Source: CIMB Daybreak - 02 March 2015
Target RM13.22 (Stock Rating: HOLD)
FY14 core net profit was 8% above our full-year forecast and 9% above that of consensus. FY14 revenue rose due to a better performance in Singapore, while net profit jumped due to the better average selling prices, product mix and operating efficiency in Malaysia, as well as the recovery from the stock rationalisation exercise in Singapore and stronger profits from associates. We increase our FY15-16 earnings forecasts by 7% and our DDM-based target price. We maintain our Hold call on CAB. CAB declared a final and special single-tier dividend of 66 sen per share, bringing the full-year DPS to 71 sen – ahead of our forecast of 64 sen. We prefer Thai Beverage.
Better full-year results
Carlsberg Brewery’s (CAB) FY14 revenue rose by 5.1% yoy, while net profit increased by 15% yoy. Given that Malaysia’s sales were flat yoy (+0.2% pt), the stronger topline was attributed to the stronger sales in Singapore (+23.2% yoy). Singapore’s sales gained traction following the completion of the stock rationalisation programme that started in 2Q13 and ended in Jan 14. There was also a positive impact from the acquisition of Maybev in Apr 2014. Despite the flat revenue from Malaysia that made up 74.7% of total revenue and the higher duty paid due to the change in valuation method, net profit still grew by 15%. This was due to ongoing cost management efforts, higher selling prices, better product mix in Malaysia (operating profit margin: +1.6% pts yoy), the low base effect from Singapore as it was impacted by the stock rationalisation exercise in the previous year as well as the acquisition of Maybev this year. The stronger net profit was also driven by stronger profit (+87% yoy to RM11m) from its Sri Lankan associate – the company no longer imports beer products following its capacity expansion. The overall EBIT margin gained 1.3% pts yoy to 16.4%.
4Q did not do so well
Compared to 9MFY14, CAB did not perform as well in 4QFY14. While revenue increased 9.3% yoy, net profit declined 1.7% yoy. The stronger topline was driven by both Malaysia (+3.6% due to higher selling prices and better product mix) and Singapore (+27.6% mainly due to the completion of the stock rationalisation programme) markets. The decline in bottomline was impacted by higher marketing costs and excise duty in Singapore.
Source: CIMB Daybreak - 02 March 2015
