NTPM (5066) – Fundamental Analysis (8 Feb 2015)

NTPM (5066) – Fundamental Analysis (8 Feb 2015)


NTPM Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1zkfVHp

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/k2k4u82

My View:-

Valuation:
       
5Y-DCF:
           
Good Scenario: 0.34 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
           
Base Scenario: 0.3 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
           
Bad Scenario: 0.27 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
           
Ugly Scenario: 0.24 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
           
If growth of FCFF in the next 5 years is 23.5%, NTPM still worth 0.645.
       
Absolute EY%:
           
Trailing:
               
FY14 (EPS: 0.048) – Fair value 0.64 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
               
R4Q (EPS: 0.037) – Fair value 0.5 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
           
Forward:
               
FY15 (EPS: 0.031) – Fair value 0.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
               
FY16 (EPS: 0.047) – Fair value 0.62 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
           
EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.645): 0.048
   
I am very new to this counter, but I have difficulties to think about its growth drivers.
   
Besides, NTPM has no obvious economic moats.
   
I will place this counter in Research List.

Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (19 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1831869

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of NTPM.

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/