SKPETRO (5218) : SKPETRO – Fundamental Analysis (10 Dec 2014)
SKPETRO Analysis:-
Excel – http://1drv.ms/1ukfATE
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/ofcwwjx
My View:-
Fair Value:
3-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario: 4.21 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Good Scenario: 4.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Bad Scenario: 3.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Ugly Scenario: 3.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
Absolute PE:
FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 2.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
R4Q (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 3.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Absolute EY%:
Trailing:
FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 7.08 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
R4Q (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 10.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
Forward:
FY15 (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 8.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
FY16 (EPS: 0.255) – Fair value 9.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.45): 0.065
I won’t use Absolute EY% for this case because the valuation is too optimistic. 3-Y DCF and Absolute PE indicates that SKPETRO is undervalued.
– I am positive on SapuraKencana for its strong quality and well diversified orderbook, healthy earnings and consistent job wins.
Many people asked me whether we should buy O&G counters now. I consider SKPETRO as part of my value investing portfolio. In my opinion, I think this is good time to accumulate O&G counters. Remember the Warren Buffett’s most famous investment sayings: “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Latest Financial – Q3 2015 Financial Report (9 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1820653
At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.
http://lcchong.wordpress.com
SKPETRO Analysis:-
Excel – http://1drv.ms/1ukfATE
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/ofcwwjx
My View:-
Fair Value:
3-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario: 4.21 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Good Scenario: 4.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Bad Scenario: 3.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Ugly Scenario: 3.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
Absolute PE:
FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 2.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
R4Q (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 3.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Absolute EY%:
Trailing:
FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 7.08 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
R4Q (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 10.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
Forward:
FY15 (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 8.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
FY16 (EPS: 0.255) – Fair value 9.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.45): 0.065
I won’t use Absolute EY% for this case because the valuation is too optimistic. 3-Y DCF and Absolute PE indicates that SKPETRO is undervalued.
– I am positive on SapuraKencana for its strong quality and well diversified orderbook, healthy earnings and consistent job wins.
Many people asked me whether we should buy O&G counters now. I consider SKPETRO as part of my value investing portfolio. In my opinion, I think this is good time to accumulate O&G counters. Remember the Warren Buffett’s most famous investment sayings: “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Latest Financial – Q3 2015 Financial Report (9 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1820653
At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.
http://lcchong.wordpress.com