2023半年回顾
6月底去了日本一趟,玩了好几天,都忘了2023年半年过去,需要好好回顾下这半年的市场。
这半年来,市场就好像应验了,所谓“牛市在绝望中诞生,在怀疑中成长”这句名言。与2022年跌跌不休的市场,2023年感觉像是回到了天堂,涨的最好的无疑是纳斯达克QQQ YTD+39%。
2023年之所以能够反弹如此之凶,用后望镜来看,我觉得是
Chatgbt的诞生,再加上Nvidia突如其来的惊爆业绩前瞻,吹响了AI的浪潮,带动了科技股。
美联储加息接近尾声,虽然美联储今年依然预计会加多两次利率,但基本上与去年从1%不到,连续加到5%的速度相比,这根本对市场产生不了多大影响。
经济学家在去年尾都预计今年上半年经济会出现衰退,但衰退迟迟没有出现,美国经济比想象中更坚挺。就业数据强劲,消费年头疲软,过后又开始反弹。同时,在如此高的利率环境之下,车市还出现了反弹。
除了乐观的观点,我觉得也不能忽略隐忧,其中有
中国复苏看起来不那么乐观,可能会连带影响全球经济。
消费性手机市场的销量无法提振,本来预计在q2,但现在要拉到年底,甚至明年。
美股估值回到疫情前的level。这波反弹,明显是跑在公司盈利之前,如果公司盈利无法交出符合预期的表现,市场可能又会出现一波跌势,回到相对合理的估值。
其实,这就是股市好玩的地方,股市永远都是乐观与悲观之间来回摆动,可能会因为一个事件而暴涨或暴跌,非常难以预料,而最简单的方法,就是长期留在市场中,最好配置,不单押all in,分批买进,等待市场给予合理报酬。
说了那么多,来看下我历年的回报,从2015年入市马股,在2020年底开始转战美股。目前投入美股第三年,2023年YTD是62.64%,持股现金比例是76:24%。我很幸运,可以熬过去年的冬天,并且收复了所有亏损。
投资一直以来都不容易,也不会是一帆风顺,今年好,不代表明年一样好。说容易的人,都是骗你的,要不然就是吸引你掏钱上课。
2015 - 11.27% (拿着存了一年的辛苦钱入市)
2016 - 12.27%
2017 - 33.84%
2018 - (2.48%)
2019 - 5.76%
2020 - 68.40%
2021 – 40.37% (转战美股)
2022 – (29.89%)
2023 – YTD 62.64%
下半年依然是机遇与危机并存,许多经济学家都在预计下半年经济会出现衰退,近来的就业数据很好,美联储继续鹰派加息,导致长短期国债攀升突破了前高,让股市开始出现回调的迹象。
没有一次牛市是完美的,都是从跌跌撞撞开始慢慢走出来,但你意识到是牛市时,许多个股已经创了新高,又会感叹我错过了。最好的投资timing,永远都是现在。
https://mrgelee69.blogspot.com/2023/07/2023.html
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