平均售价稳后又见跌 手套股次季才有转机
(吉隆坡22日讯)手套平均售价经过3个月(9月至11月)的稳定期后,目前再度走低,大马投行分析员认为,手套股在未来2个季度内,亏损将进一步扩大,最早要到明年次季才有转机。
大马投行分析员指出,经过3个月的稳定后,近期手套平均售价再度下滑,从此前的每千只20美元水平,跌至每千只17至19美元的区间,主因是中国低价产品的竞争。
“中国厂家的定价为每千只手套14至15美元,本地手套商为了留住客户,维持产能利用率,只好降价。”
该分析员称,尽管本地医疗手套的质量比中国产品优越,但两者之间有18%至21%的价格落差,足以吸引客户转向中国拿货,尤其是相对不在意地缘政治风险的欧洲客户。
“我们相信,手套平均售价持续下跌会增加风险,可能导致市场补充手套库存的周期延后,至明年次季以后才发生。”
在产能过剩和成本上涨的夹击下,分析员表示,全球最大的手套商——顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板保健股)已经由盈转亏,而贺特佳(HARTA,5168,主板保健股)和高产柅品工业(KOSSAN,7153,主板保健股),预计会在接下来的2个季度里,先后陷入亏损。
“顶级手套在接下来2个季度会扩大亏损,最早也要到明年次季才会看到改善。”
全球手套需求
手套股比较
令吉转强是坏消息
该分析员从上述3家手套商处得知,终端客户的手套库存,仍多达3至4个月的消耗量,可维持到明年首季结束,所幸,库存补充活动可能会从次季开始。
“我们相信,最早也要到明年次季,手套商的业绩表现才会好转。”
另外,近期令吉对美元走强,该分析员认为,这对手套商是个坏消息,但各家厂商受到的冲击大小有别。
从11月初开始至今,令吉对美元增值了7%至8%,而以出口为主的本地手套业,有90%以上的收入是以美元结算。
“根据计算,令吉对美元每增值10%,对贺特佳的核心净利将造成0.5%至1%的冲击,高产柅品工业则是1.3%至1.5%,而顶级手套则高达11%至13%。”
他补充,贺特佳和高产柅品工业会为绝大部分的外汇收入进行护盘,但顶级手套则不。
总的来说,大马投行保持手套股“中和”的投资评级。
https://www.enanyang.my/%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB/%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E5%94%AE%E4%BB%B7%E7%A8%B3%E5%90%8E%E5%8F%88%E8%A7%81%E8%B7%8C-%E6%89%8B%E5%A5%97%E8%82%A1%E6%AC%A1%E5%AD%A3%E6%89%8D%E6%9C%89%E8%BD%AC%E6%9C%BA
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