基本面数据:CAPEX, PPE, DEPRECIATION
3个重要和互相关的数据指标。
1. CAPEX(资本支出)
2. PPE(物业、厂房、设备)
3. Depreciation(折旧)
1. CAPEX(资本支出)
资本支出的看点包括:
a)公司生意发展趋势的重要指标
生意要做大,通常都需要投入资本去发展,尤其是制造业关联的生意。
理论上,CAPEX越大,代表成长动力越高。但,CAPEX越大,也代表投资成本越高。
如果投入的CAPEX看不到正面回报,比如发展不顺利或过度发展(或者出现魔鬼),就会带来财务压力。相反的,如果发展顺利(有诚信和素质的天使),将会带来长期正面的成长效应。
b)生意模式的分别
不一样的行业,CAPEX的成效速度都不一样。比如:消费生意需要更长的消化期(多年)才看到盈利成长效应;制造业,如果有了肯定的生意,消化期会来得短(1-2年),盈利成长效应会来得快。
有些生意不需要高CAPEX去拉动成长,因为属于轻资产业务模式的公司(比如REDTONE,SCICOM,等)。
当轻资产业务的公司也出现高CAPEX的状况,就非常值得关注。
注:消化期 - 盈利增长开始超越CAPEX带来的各种成本负担。
2. PPE(物业、厂房、设备)
除了收购案(M&A),CAPEX通常都是用来买物业、厂房、设备。CAPEX越大,PPE的数据就会提升越多。PPE越高,折旧就越大。
3. Depreciation(折旧)
当PPE持续增加,折旧的数目也会跟着增加。在折旧数目的增加期间,如果营业额或盈利的增值速度不够快,就会拖累公司的净盈利,也代表间接拉底每股盈利(eps)。
不一样的资产有不一样的折旧率(多点看不一样的公司年报,自行取知识)。比如机械,比较常见的折旧率为20%,代表5年内就会完全折旧。一旦完成折旧,公司的盈利将不再被折旧拖累,无形中更多的盈利就会浮面,eps也会突然增加。
在某种特殊状况之下,公司会做加速折旧,这将会更加快速完成折旧,属于先苦后甜的效益。
折旧是一个很神奇的指标,它特别喜欢把生意上赚到的钱藏起来,也是现金流的重要分子之一。
懂得欣赏基本数据的人,折旧是必看的重要指标!
https://whytoocare-y2k.blogspot.com/2022/11/capex-ppe-depreciation.html
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