#5/22美联储FED加息0.75%

#5/22美联储FED加息0.75%

 美联储又加息3码。

在9月21日加息前，市场开始有消息说会加息4码。我还是认为，最多加息3码。因为美联储没有必要一次加4码，吓唬市场。现在的美国利率来到3%-3.25%. 美联储在今年的11月和12月都会开会。

从美联储的会议记录里，可以看到他们要把通货膨胀降到2%。

LIBOR利率（London Interbank Offered Rate，简写LIBOR ）即伦敦同业无担保拆借利率是在1985年设立。它是指伦敦的第一流银行之间短期资金借贷的利率，是国际金融市场中大多数浮动利率的基础利率。伦敦银行对5个货币定制短期贷款利率。这5个货币是美元，英镑，日元，欧元和瑞郎。

2021年12月31日之后，立即停止所有英镑、欧元、瑞士法郎、日元，以及1周和2个月期美元LIBOR报价。2023年6月30日之后所有剩余期限美元利率终止报价。

LIBOR是离岸美元最重要的市场基准利率。离岸美元浮动利率贷款、浮动利率债券、利率衍生品多以LIBOR为参考利率。甚至很多美国在岸市场金融产品也将LIBOR作为参考利率。

美国以有担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）替代美元LIBOR。SOFR是纽约联邦储备银行和美国财政部金融研究办公室共同编制的新基准利率，于2018年4月正式推出，由纽约联储担任管理人。SOFR基于隔夜国债回购交易生成，对应市场日均交易基础超过1万亿美元。

SOFR是国债回购交易的利率，不包含信用风险，可能无法准确反映金融机构真实的融资成本。Bader(2019)指出，如果出现金融危机，资金涌向美债等避险资产，SOFR利率可能不升反降，但无担保利率会大幅上升。此时，如果金融机构缺乏足够的抵押品，但其资产以SOFR为定价基准，就可能出现负债成本大幅上升的情况，但资产回报率没有随之上升的情况。

我个人认为，LIBOR终结，被SORF取代。这是改写美元拆借利率的权利方和算法。所以，对美元货币，应该去搞懂SORF。那些解释LIBOR的书，可以不用读，以免用旧视角看美元拆借利率。

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued September 21, 2022

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