TH PLANTATION (5112) A PLANTATION STOCK LAGGARD WORTH ANOTHER LOOK, Calvin Tan Research

 

Hi guys,

As my usual hobby I love to find undervalue LAGGARD Stocks. Once a Stock flew away into high high prices I always tell people not to chase

The Investment Approach of Buying low & hope to sell high is my forte. Not chase high with the hope of selling higher.

Now these are the reasons why ThPlant is still a palm oil laggard

1) THPLANT HAS MET THE GOLDEN RULE OF 2 QUARTERS POSITIVE EARNINGS

See

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION 30 Jun 2020

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD		CUMULATIVE PERIOD
		CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		30 Jun 2020	30 Jun 2019	30 Jun 2020	30 Jun 2019
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	127,570	106,113	243,121	221,396
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	25,431	-29,088	10,943	-32,121
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	13,349	-22,745	401	-31,647
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	8,157	-19,150	-3,374	-27,241
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	0.92	-2.17	-0.38	-3.08
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	0.6300		0.6400

Definition of Subunit:

In a currency system, there is usually a main unit (base) and subunit that is a fraction amount of the main unit.
Example for the subunit as follows:
 

Country	Base Unit	Subunit
Malaysia	Ringgit	Sen
United States	Dollar	Cent
United Kingdom	Pound	Pence

 

2ND QUATER RESULT SHOWED A GOOD TURNAROUND

From a loss of 2.17 sen to a profit of 0.92 Sen

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION 30 Sep 2020

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD		CUMULATIVE PERIOD
		CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		30 Sep 2020	30 Sep 2019	30 Sep 2020	30 Sep 2019
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	167,430	136,007	410,551	357,403
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	37,776	-48,791	48,719	-80,912
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	23,864	-40,013	24,265	-71,660
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	15,772	-31,609	12,398	-58,850
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	1.78	-3.58	1.40	-6.66
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	0.6600		0.6400

Definition of Subunit:

In a currency system, there is usually a main unit (base) and subunit that is a fraction amount of the main unit.
Example for the subunit as follows:
 

Country	Base Unit	Subunit
Malaysia	Ringgit	Sen
United States	Dollar	Cent
United Kingdom	Pound	Pence

 

AND 3RD QUARTER EVEN BETTER THAN 2ND QUARTER

 

REVENUE UP FROM RM127 MILLIONS TO RM167 MILLIONS

 

PROFIT INCREASED FROM 0.92 SEN TO 1.78 SEN (OR UP 93%)

NAV ALSO UP FROM 63 SEN TO 66 SEN

SO FAR SO GOOD

WHAT ABOUT NEXT QUARTER & THE NEXT?

WHAT IF PRODUCTION OF FRESH FRUIT BUNCHES DECREASE FROM NOV 2020 TO FEBRUARY 2021?

TO FIND THE TRUTH LET US GO BACK TO SEE THE LAST QTR REPORT

HA! FOR THE PROFIT OF 1.78 SEN THEY BENCHMARK CPO PRICES AT RM2,477 PER TONNE

THAT WAS UNTIL SEPTEMBER 31TH 2020

AND FROM OCTOBER, NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER 5TH AS WE TYPE FCPO HAS REACHED THE LOFTY HEIGHT OF RM3,690 A TONNE

13	FCPO	Dec 2020	3,530.00	2,450.00	-	3,690.00	+186.00	3,695.00	3,530.00	180	2,241	3,645.00
14	FCPO	Jan 2021	3,440.00	3,450.00	-	3,553.00	+142.00	3,560.00	3,426.00	3,357	25,187	3,552.00

 

UP BY HOW MANY PER CENT?

RM3,690 - RM2,447 = RM1,243

DIVIDES  RM1,243  BY RM2,447 = 50.79%

WILL FFB OR CPO DROP BY 50%? 

NO! ONLY 10% TO 15% 

SO THE OVERALL PICTURE PAINTS A VERY BRIGHT FUTURE

WHY?

LET US LOOK AT THE COMMENTS FROM LAST QTR RESULTS

 

TH Plantations Berhad

Registration No. 197201001069 (12696-M)

(Incorporated in Malaysia)

 

30. Current Year Prospects

 

The outlook for the Group’s overall financial performance for the financial year

ending 31 December 2020 will largely depend on the movement of palm products

prices and the progress of our Strategic Recovery Plan.

 

Markets are expected to continue to remain stable despite the volatility mainly

influenced by the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the

world economy. The Group expects palm oil prices for the medium term to be

strong supported by the following factors:

 

- Low production season had started from November 2020 until February

2021.

 

- Disruption in production due to labour shortages.

 

- The weather phenomenon “La Nina” is expected to persist until at least

January 2021. Expectations of a reduction in sunflower crops, lower soya

bean inventories in the United States and unfavourable weather for planting

in South America are also contributing to a bullish outlook for the edible oil

market in general.

 

- As the global COVID-19 situation improved with prospects from the

progress of the COVID-19 vaccine development, there will be increasing

demand from major palm oil-consuming countries such as China and India.

In addition, the timing for the realisation of the disposal of certain assets that are

classified as held for sale might be delayed beyond the next twelve (12) months as

a result of further Conditional Movement Control Order (“CMCO”) imposed by the

 

True Visionary Statement!

India suffered the La Nina Cyclones & Floods. Maharastha state where Onion, Corn & Soybean are produced have been inundated by Floods - wiping out its crops. Red onions from India has jumped from Rm3 a kg to Rm18 a kg or up 600%

 

Fearing for its 1.35 BILLION CITIZENS INDIAN GOVT HAS REDUCED CPO IMPORT BY 10%

China 1.39 BILLION PEOPLE Upcoming CHINESE NEW YEAR ON FEBRUARY 12 2021 WILL NEED LOTS OF PALM OIL AS ITS SOYBEAN & CORN WERE WIPED OUT BY 3 SUPER TYPHOONS, HAISHEN & MAYSAK THIS YEAR= ALL DUE TO LA NINA EFFECT

RIGHT NOW IN SOUTH AMERICA BRAZIL, ARGENTINA, BOLIVIA, URUGUAY & PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PLANTING SEASON ALMOST OVER AND YET DRY WEATHER OVER 95 DEGREE FARENHEIGHT ARE DAILY OCCURANCE

 

 

 

 

 

AND SO CAN WE EXPECT PALM OIL TO GO MUCH MUCH HIGHER OR IF NOT AT LEAST SUSTAIN ITS PRICES ABOVE RM3,000 A TONNE?

SINCE COST OF PRODUCTION AROUND RM1,700 ALL PALM OIL COMPANIES SHOULD DO WELL

 

NOW LET US TAKE A LOOK AT WHO ARE THE TOP 30 HOLDERS OF THPLANT

1) TABUNG HAJI (Now cleaned up like FGV)

2) Public Mutual Fund

3)  Pertubuhan Peladang Negeri Terengganu at Top 5.

Ha! Trengganu Govt also in Top 30. No wonder TDM bought 70% stake in one of Th Plant subsidiary. TDM like Tmakmur people value add by rearing Animals for Sale in Palm oil plantations

 

But look at 4 & 5

4) Dynaquest has 750,000 shares of Th Plant.Yes Dynaquest by Grand Champion Master Sifu Investor Dr Neoh Soon Kean

5) Neoh Choo Ee & Company Sdn Bhd. Wahaha. This is the private personal investment of Sifu Dr. Neoh

He owns a whopping 3.7 Million shares of Thplant and he is in number 9

Total 30 Topholders own 86.5% of TH PLANT Shares according to Annual Report. So free float only 13.5%

 

Best Regards

Calvin Tan Research

Republic of Singapore

 

Disclaimer

All information provided here should be treated for informational purposes only. It is solely reflecting author's personal views and the author should not be held liable for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein

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