[ COMFORT GROUP ] - 重返RM 1.00 的旅程 , 是危还是机 ??? - J4 Investment Capital
今年可说是手套股辉煌的一年 , 同行中的 TOPGLOV , HARTA , KOSSAN 和 SUPERMX , 股价都通通突破历史新高 , 基金和散户都很喜欢这4 家 , 那为什么股价曾经去到 RM 1.20 的 COMFORT , 命运却和其他 4 只公司相反呢 ? 到底是危还是机 ?COMFORT 是在霹雳州 ( Perak ) 的一家制造 Nitrile 和 Latex Glove , 出口的国家包括 , 北美 , 中东 , 东南亚 , 澳洲 , 南美 和非洲 . 公司总共有 3 建厂房 , 43 条生产线 , 每年平均能生产 43.6 亿手套 , 规模不大 , 但是家逐渐成长的公司. 管理层也有望在未来能在泰国 , 印尼 , 和越南设厂生产产品.
扩充是公司主要的大目标, 公司已近计划在未来扩充多 8 条新生产线 , 从40 条至 48 条 , 其中有 3 条已经在上一个季度报告中完工, 开始贡献盈利 , 相信每年能生产 360 mil 的手套数量. 公司也在 Bemban, Perak 购买了一块土地 , 价值 RM 13.2 mil 来建新的厂房 , 相信能给未来贡献不少盈利.
公司在 Q1’ 19 的季度报告中有个 RM 2.3 mil 的 provision for tax payable 一次性开销 , 扣除的话还有个 RM 9.6 mil , YoY 是下跌了5 % , 营业额却因为有新生产线的贡献而上升了 13.7 % 至 RM 106.6 mil .
Q1 的业绩下跌也包括了几个因素, 其中就有
1. 较高的营业成本
2. 天然气的价格上升
3. 美金转弱
以下是公司的一些基本面 :
P/E : 14.68
ROE : 13.09
Profit Margin : 7.63
DY : -
NTA : 0.45
E/Y : 8.13%
Debt to Equity : 0.08
EV/ EBIT : 12.3
Price to Book : 1.92
Dividend Policy : -
在上一季的报告出炉后 , 美金开始走强至 RM 4.04 , 对它来说是很大的帮助 , 可以为天然气的价格做个对冲 , 另外 5 条新生产线也相信会在下半年陆陆续续投入运作 .
公司最大的挑战就是之前被美国的FDA 列入 Red List , 被指违反了条规 , 使股价重挫. 公司后来也表明有能力把自己证明清白 , 随后也会在 8 月份公布成绩. 如果真的可以成功逃脱, 再以美金和新生产线的贡献的推动下 , 肯定可以取得很好的成绩 .
Intrinsic value analysis :
The calculated intrinsic value is equivalent to the current closing price at 0.87 (17 /7 /2018) . Therefore , there is no any significant buying or selling point from this point of view . The share closing price today has fully reflected all of its value , a further price surge with no improvement in company earnings is considered as overvalue for this shares .
With a current PE at 14.77 , is it considered as high / moderate or low ?
Let’s calculate its PEG ratio to get the answer .
PEG Ratio = PE / Growth % estimate
= 14.77 /15
= 0.98 <1 slightly="" span="" undervalue="">
Fair Price =Growth Est x Current Rolling EPS
=15 x 5.9 sen
= 88.5 sen
From the calculation above , there are not much potential profit from this counter , with only 1.5 sen profit or 2 percent . Recommendation from this two analysis , there are actually much more better stock than this counter , we will only enter if and and only if this company can beat our expectation .
Chart Pattern Analysis :
Fibonacci Retracement Analysis :
After the two major support is tested , Comfort Gloves are currently going into a consolidating period with a support at 0.85 and resistance at 0.92 . 0.92 will be a strong resistance for this counter to breakthrough .
This counter has escape from its consolidating period , and waiting to challenge for the strongest resistance at 0.92 .However , the volume indicator does not show divergence , therefore in my opinion the safest point to buy in is when it break through 0.92 with a strong fundamental improvement .
From weekly chart analysis :
The cup with handle formation is projected and completed with the breakout of the handle , however we have to buy it at a relatively good point and afford the risk of holding period , the breakout in weekly chart required substantial of patience and holding power .
Long term ( 3-5 years ) TP : a one to one measure from the bottom of the cup to the resistance , which is RM1.9 .
The On Balance Volume indicates there are a large smart money inflow during the formation of cup with handle .
Conclusion :
It is a share for only value investor and a long term investor which can average down the price , a long holding period is worthwhile to generate a more than 100 % profit in about 3-5 years . Investor can keep an eye on this counter when it has successfully violated the strongest resistance at 0.92.
Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .
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