Bitcoin Mania
I am with the group that is calling this the biggest bubble since the bloody tulips. It has surged no end and can continue to do so. Because its still UNREGULATED. The market for Bitcoins has no depth, in that you can't really short it easily (though there are 3 or 4 platforms that allow it at the moment but the participation level is low).
The key to anything being a currency is the ease of use, and the willingness to use it to purchase real goods and services. Currently the adoption rate is very very low. I mean you know you are ONTO something sinister when the best users and real fans of this Bitcoins are drug traffickers, tax evaders, corruption & bribery tools generators, and political despots.
The thing which I haven't figured out, how the bubble bursting will happen? I mean, a couple of big storage facility of Bitcoins were "robbed" and that did not bring about the bubble bursting - suffice to say, the so called blockchain encryption did not help to safeguard Bitcoin. I think that the TAXATION part could give the bubble a real prick. I don't think even 1% of those who made gains on Bitcoin paid any taxes. Soon, the IRS and other jurisdiction will demand from Bitcoin, the blockchain information on who owned what and when - which basically will scare everybody and collapses the attraction of blockchain in the cryptofucking currency.
The other argument that it cuts out the middleman esp for foreign workers remitting money back to under developed nations does not cut it as there are plenty of new companies that does that on an app cutting out the Western Unions of the world.
There are huge technological benefits of blockchain, but I see them being in logistics and product tracking/verification.
Put it another way, I think Mugabe got lots of Bitcoins!!!
Vivocom: Transforming & Reinventing
Vivocom was a favoured trading counter over the last two years. Naturally nobody will complain when they benefit from the volatility. The earlier hype then was the potential JVs with certain high powered China construction giants. Things seemed to have died down.
The recent announcement of a MOU on share swap with CNQC looks more interesting. Effectively, CNQC will come through as the major shareholder should the deal pass through. Whats more interesting was that there was little "goreng" activity following the news in spite of numerous articles in the papers. If the stunt was to push up the share price to influence investors and traders - why didn't it happen? Has the same animal changed its stripes?
I can think of a couple of reasons: one, the MOU is very likely to come to fruition, which will see a new "controlling shareholder", who might prioritise many other things. If you look at the background of CNQC, it is listed on the Main Board of HKSE following a RTO of an existing company. The revenues and profits largely stems from their property and construction projects in Singapore. Whats more interesting was that in the 3 years following its takeover of the HK listing, the share price has more than doubled up from HKD0.80 to the current HKD2.83. CNQC can be said to be a professional outfit, judging from the way they managed the listed entity, to the numerous construction awards obtained in Singapore.
Two: Many might have stopped short of buying, awaiting for the MOU to be a reality. This is highly plausible, and would lend credence to it being a transformed vehicle with new drivers. No matter how you cut it, either on earnings or PER or order book, Below 17 sen Vivocom is damn cheap.
Parentage - Given that the MOU is likely to happen, then should do more research on CNQC. CNQC is the only listed vehicle outside of China under the Qingjian Group in Shandong province. Google it and you will find that it is the largest privately held group NOT LISTED yet in China, with revenues of over USD6bn a year. So there you go ... its the only listed arm of powerhouse in China... they have marked their territory in Singapore... you want to presume why they would want to enter Malaysia??!!
The LINK/CATALYST - There are many big projects around in Malaysia but not many are doing it because it requires hefty capital, and sometimes the terms of payment might be onerous/challenging as they are dealing with state and government bodies. All in, you need huge access to capital, and that cost of capital needs to be "cheap or highly competitive", and be a long term committed player to really secure the big ones.
In less than two weeks following the MOU announcement with CNQC, Vivocom Intl Holdings Berhad (Vivocom) has made another announcement with the signing of a Heads of Agreement (HOA) with MACfeam Sdn Bhd (MSB) for the Project East Coast Railway Lines (ECRL).
In
an announcement to Bursa Malaysia this evening, Vivocom said that its
subsidiary company, Vivocom Enterprise Sdn Bhd (VESB) and MSB are
forming a consortium with the purpose of jointly submitting an
application for prequalification, tendering for, obtaining the award and
performing the contract (ECRL Contract) in relation to the states of
Terengganu and Pahang that has been called by the China Communications
Construction Company Ltd and China Communications Construction Company
(M) Sdn. Bhd. The partnership between VESB and MSB constitutes 60 per cent and 40 per cent, respectively.
This, I believe is an indicator of the shape of things to come.https://www.nst.com.my/business/2017/10/292768/vivocom-consortium-eyes-ecrl-project
There is also a credible blogger writing on this, check it out:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/alexchin88/140920.jsp
The Last Mile
Many
were scratching their heads when Amazon bought Whole Foods. Followed by
Alibaba's purchase of 18% stake in Lianhua, a supermarket chain in
China. All that has to do with the last mile of delivery of goods and
services. As good and as convenient the internet/apps are, a lot of the
goods and service will still have to be delivered.Once you have conquered mail delivery, then come parcels, then the shopping on internet that has to be delivered. Looking down the chain, the other big item that needs delivery are groceries, and maybe toiletries/pharmaceuticals. Once you nail the last mile, you can be empowered on the last mile delievery chain.
You look at all the delivery operators (GDEX, Poslaju, Fedex, etc.) and functionaries (Food Panda, Pizza Hut, McDonalds, office documents, etc..) that need deliveries. Each of the operate independently, and have their own delivery team. THAT IS THE BIGGEST FLAW and if they do not reinvent, they will die a horrible death.
There is no need for each of them to operate a separate delivery team. Its highly inefficient, margins eroding and can tumble your whole business. Ask Food Panda, whats their biggest worry and cost - delivery.
The new platform if you are not on it, will kill you slowly - its hyperlocal logistics, payments and transport.
Cities with big enough population, such as in China, where each city are dominated by maybe ONE or TWO big delivery firms... making the top 4 company owners of delivery services billionaires in USD. If you go to Jakarta there are Go-Jek, Deliveree (uses cars/vans to deliver boxes), GoGoVan and Lazada.
Go Jek has over 400,000 motorcyclists and car drivers, but mainly the former. They deliver everything. All of them have a phone and an app to bid for jobs. Imagine UBER but for everything else (why do you think UBER has gone to deliver food as well). But you cannot be nimbler than motorcyclists - they can deliver food, mail, documents, small items, flowers, tickets, produce ... It works well in the heavily traffic Jakarta as things get log-jammed.
It also worked very well in Bangkok with GoBike (started by two Malaysians) with a similar concept. In Bangkok, the motorcyclists multiplied their average income by over 2-3x by freelancing with GoBike - they can bid for food, parcel, document delievery on their phone where they are closest. They can still ferry workers alighting from train stations to their workplace, etc... So you can imagine when Go Jek or Go Bike comes to KL - there is no need for any of the firms to employ couriers. They will all be independent and earn much more.
Once the battle for last mile has completed, then they can leverage on things such as related advertising, product promotion, even e-wallet synergies. But these things will happen in bigger cities first. So, GDEX, the only advantage you have is overseas delivery in the end - better sell soon or do a deep jv with another Asia/China logistics/delivery unit.
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.my/2017/12/commentary-bitcoin-mania-vivocom-last.html
