Recently, there are a lot of news stating that the Malaysia stock market was not performing well, lack of investor's optimism sentiment and more. However, it is a temporary set back or correction in the stock market. But these news caused investors to worry and in constant cautious status.
A financial crisis or burst of a bubble only happen in extreme optimism and extreme greed. Now since we talk about greed, let's elaborate more into it.
Humans always trying to look at "the others" to make their decision. When others are greedy, they are greedy too. But when others are fear, they would react the same too. Basically it is a human chain reaction.
Now let's back to pure logic. When everyone is greedy, thus a divergence between price and value was formed. Or we call it bubble. Another indicator is the P/E ratio. Normally. The average P/E ratio in the market is roughly 15/16. But once it goes to 22 or more, it signals the whole market was overvalued and a bubble was formed. During such a period, investors are overly optimistic towards the stock market and any trigger could drag down the stock market.
Therefore, currently the Malaysia stock market is in stable state where the average P/E is around 15/16 times. Therefore it's not likely that the market will blow up. Remember we stated that the financial crisis only comes when the market was in a extreme optimism and extreme greedy state? Now that everyone was cautious and scared, therefore we don't see any indicator that would crash the market.
最近很多新闻都在说大马股票市场并没有很好的表现及缺少投资者的青眯。 但是这都是短暂的回调及横摆。这些新闻都导致投资者难免担心金融风暴会爆发。
金融风暴或者泡沫的破灭只会发生在投资者极度的贪婪或者极度的乐观里发生。那现在让我们聊聊所谓的贪婪。
我们无论想要做什么都会去看看别人怎么做。这种行为将会导致市场上的连锁反应，即别人贪心我们则贪心，别人惧怕时我们也会惧怕。这样基本上形成了一个人类连锁反应。
好，那现在让我们回去纯逻辑来分析金融风暴。当每个人都在极度贪婪或极度惧怕时，价格跟价值就会产生价格跟价值的差距，或者普遍称为泡沫。又或者我们可以看看P/E值。一般来说市场的平均P/E值都是介于15/16之间。当到达22则是危险地带。他表示市场被严重高估而形成了泡沫。在这段时间内，投资者是极度的乐观及贪婪。然而任何大型的黑天鹅都会将泡沫破坏。
所以呢，大马股市现在处于正常水平，股市的P/E平均在15/16之间。所以金融风暴爆发的机会不大。还记得刚才讨论过金融风暴及泡沫只会在投资者极度乐观跟贪婪时发生。现在投资者都处于惧怕跟警惕的气氛中。所以暂时是无任何明确的指标指向金融风暴的形成。
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