So many investors and traders in the stock markets are obsessed with market-timing.
This on-going obsession to come in at the best point (lowest price) and exiting at the best point (highest price) has spawned investing concepts, theories, software systems and tools that try and "assist" the investor to be literally, perfect. I guess it feeds into a lot of investors ego that they need to be that person who will be able to predict the market. Its likely the need to be THE ALPHA in all of us that has enabled all these products to thrive.
We are also no different. Common questions we get asked from people sending us mail or people we interact with through Laburlah :-
1. Is it a good-time to buy now?
2. Is it a good-time to sell now?
3. This stock is moving now, should I get it? How long do you think it can go?
4. The price is so low, it is time now?
The common denominator - "Is it TIME?"
And as hard as it is to be consistent in trying to effectively time the market correctly over a long-run, I am also not oblivious to the facts. At Laburlah, we are deeply analytical in our investment strategy and that has allowed us to consider a lot of different aspects of investing including market-timing strategies. We don't apply everything we know when managing our portfolio, but there are some which are compelling enough that its deserves consideration on your portfolio strategy.
Take example the coming month of March. For the last 10 years, the KLCI index has shown positive returns 8 out of 10 years. And it has been on a run of 7 consecutive years of positive returns for March.
In fact, since 2006, the month of March has coincided with the KLCI index going on short/med bull-run that lasted at least 30 days, most of the time as the start or middle of an on-going run. Only once in the last 10 years has this "short-term bull-run" ended in March.
Will it happen again next month? When will it start? I don't own a crystal ball, so I'll wait and see. But if you are a data person like I am - the trend says that it is unlikely to be a bad month for the KLCI based on recent history and if you trying to time your entry into the market or in fact, looking to exit at a high, well, you be hard-pressed to find fault with March's recent success.
I can't say which stock is going to thrive, but what I can say, try not to buy into a stock that is under-performing the index if you are basing your entry on this viewpoint - that's just an illogical decision on why you are entering in the first place.
That's called trying to be a HERO. A lot of heroes never get the girl at the end - you know that right?
Is March a good time to put money into KLCI stocks? - laburlah
http://www.laburlah.com/single-post/2017/02/22/Is-March-a-good-time-to-put-money-into-KLCI-stocks
