HIBISCS (5199) - Calvin's Warning on over speculated (unproven) Hibiscus!
Dear Fellow Investors of i3 Forum (Calvin is speaking to True Investors only). If you are a gambler then better please don't bother.
Hibiscis is yet to prove its profitable turn around business. Last quarter result is not the norm. It is only a one off due to accounting tricks. Next quarter result will show a drop in profit. By then prices will retrace. Those who recklessly chasing & punting hibiscus will be left holding a lemon.
See
Let's take a look at Hibiscus latest Quarterly Result:
Ha! It shows a 5.91 cents earning this quarter.
True or not?
Let's dig further.
It showed a Rm54.7 million in revenue.
But a profit of Rm80.2 million?
How come?
Revenue is only Rm54.7 million & can get a profit of Rm80.2 million? Looks fishy indeed!
Rm72.8 million is under "Taxation" refund or rebate or what? This is not from operating profit but accounting trick. A real con job stating this as "profit".
So Rm80.2 million - Rm72.8 million = Rm 7.4 million "profit"
Look again!
Ha! there is another Rm17.5 million from foreign currency gain!
So Rm7.4 million - Rm17.5 million = - Rm10.1 million loss this quarter from actual company operation!!
OH BOY! ANOTHER BIG CON JOB HERE!!
So stripping off "illusory taxation gain" & foreign exchange gain which are one off the actual loss this quarter is Rm10.1 Million!
SURPRISE! THERE IS AN OPERATING LOSS OF 0.74 CENT THIS QUARTER FOR CONMAN HIBISCUS!!
Don't believe? Still not convinced?
Let us investigate further then
Now let's scroll down to CASH FLOW ACCOUNTS
Net cash generated from financing activities.............................................................................Rm16.420,000
Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents..................................................................................(12,303,000)
Effects of foreign exchange rate changes........................................................................................... 671,000
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the financial quarter ...................................................28,746 ,000
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the financial quarter............................................................. 17,114,000
Can you SEE that there IS AN ACTUAL DECREASE IN CASH OF (12,303,000) + gain from foreign exchange of Rm671K
So the NET LOSS OF CASH IS RM11,632,000?
RM11.6 MILLION CASH WIPED OFF THIS QUARTER!
And where did extra monies come from. From endless private placements that kept diluting value like another conman KNM?
Hibiscus is a clear case of fools selling to greater fools; and greater fools will finally sell to the Greatest Fools!
THE GREATER FOOL THEORY (Page 67 Last paragraph) By Great
Champion Sifu Dr Neoh Soon Kean (Exerpt from his book called STOCK
MARKET INVESTMENT
This is a theory that is usually very popular during the immature phase
of a stock market's development. More of the followers of this theory
are not aware that the trading system which they believe in goes by this
peculiar name. From the stock market's behaviour during the past three
booms, we can say that many Malaysians/Singaporeans appear to be strong
supporters of this theory. This theory was very popular in the US during
the 1920s but since then, it has fallen out of favour even though
pockets of true believers still appear from time to time.
In essence, believers of this theory hold that stock prices are not
dependent on anything tangible but rather dependent on the continual
appearance of more people who are willing to purchase the stocks at an
even higher price {these people are the so-called 'greater fools').
Thus, it neither matters what price one buys a stock nor that the
stock's price is ridiculously high by any normal standard of
measurement. Thus the believers of this school of thought hold the view
that whatever stock one buys can always be sold at a higher price
because there will always be greater fools than themselves. Thus, it is
fine to buy MUIB at $24.00 because there will be another person foolish
(or brave) enough to pay $26.00 for it. Believers of the greater fool
theory never for a minute think that the supply of fools will be
exhausted and that they may be the final purchaser before the crash.
During every stock market boom, there are usually a large number of
believers of the greater fool theory and some of them actually make a
lot of money on the way up. Some of them get out in time by finding some
greater fools to take over their hot potatoes in the nick of time but
many find that they themselves end up as the greatest fools because
there is no one else willing to bid up the price anymore. Needless to
say, the Greater Fool Theory is a much discredited one among academics
and most professionals. But it still finds many adherents. Why is this
so? Everyone is having too much fun, (that is, making so much money) on
the way up that they do not want to leave the market. George Goodman,
writing under the pen name of 'Adam Smith' has this wonderful parable to
explain how people are caught up in the web of the Greater Fool Theory
and do not know when to get out.
We are all at a wonderful ball where champagne sparkles in
every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know, by the
rules, that at some moment, terrorists will burst in through the
terrace doors, killing many and scattering the survivors. Those who
leave early will be saved, but the ball is so splendid that no one wants
to leave while there is still time. Everyone wants to enjoy one more
dance and sip one more glass of champagne. So everyone kept asking:
"What time is it? What time is it?" We look around and find that all the
clocks have no hands.
CALVIN WARNS: IF
SYNDICATES SUDDENLY THROW DOW LIKE (TRIPLE LIMIT DOWN IN IFCA) or LIMIT
DOWN AS IN COMCORP THEN THOSE CAUGHT HOLDING HIGHER PRICES WILL SUFFER
SUDDEN SHATTERING LOSSES!! This is what Dr. Neoh meant by terrorists
burst through the terrace and klling many!!
This may be a surrealist's way of describing the stock market
but Goodman's parable has a great deal of truth in it. Of course, we
know that in every speculative boom of the past, the 'terrorists' did
come when most of the guests were still enjoying themselves at the ball.
As 'Adam Smith' implies, nobody knows when a speculative boom will end
but end it must for that is the rule. At every speculative boom, not
many of the small speculators escaped with their gains made on the way
up. Most of the smaller speculators known to me eventually lost all
their gains and much more than what has been gained.
Some even lost a large part of their original capital. Thus on
the next occassion when you happen to find yourselves at this type of a
ball, try to leave early. The problem is that once one is caught up in
the fun and games of the party, one is apt to lose touch with reality.
Chances are that believers of the Greater Fool Theory will hang on to
the bitter end, only to be slaughtered. It is better to miss a few
dances or a few glasses of champagne than lose one's life.
In concluding this section, an anecdote about Bernarde Baruch,
generally acknowledged to be the greatest stock traders of the 1920s is
related. He was once asked how it was that he remained so rich while
many of his contemporaries had declared bankrupt. This was his splendid
answer: 'I always sold too early.'
Calvin comments:
These are the factors you MUST KNOW About Hibiscus
1) Last Quarter Result - stripping one off tax rebate & forex gain there is actually no profit at all for hibiscus
2) Its Cash position has also DEPLETED FURTHER.
3) The actual intrincsic value of hibiscus is now suspect as there is amplified dilution by endless private placements!
4) Without these accounting tricks the next Quarterly Report of
hibiscus will drop drastically -leading to sudden shocking sell down.
Those in Hovid got a shock when license revoked! So those chasing
hibiscus will also get a shock if hibiscus price drops drastically.
More external factors
5) Opec & Non Opec supporting crude oil prices have yet to be
confirmed. Will Iran keep pumping & is there cheating among them.
6) Will the world's crude oil demand continues to drop as recession
bites further due to protectionism. In 1937 when USA raised trade tariff
US Dow swooned. Will Trump's Rally suddenly go into reversal?
7) With the Price of Crude now above US$50.00 the Shale Oil Rigs are
now being revived one by one. Will this be the undoing of Crude OIl
Price Rise? Shale Oil caused the Collapse of Crude Oil. It can happen
again.
See http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Rig-Count-Climbs-To-A-10-Month-High.html
8) One more potential danger is from Donald Trump himself. Since Trump
practices protectionism US restrictive law for Oil exploration might be
done away. And if Trump unleash the largest stock of reseve Oil in the
world which is AMERICA. The World Oil Market Will Collapse again!
Oil Reserves by Country
Most likely estimate for existing fields, discoveries and yet undiscovered fields
United States
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Iran
Brazil
Iraq
Venezula
Mexico
China
billions of barrels of oil
So please invest safely.
Buy and sell according to your own discretion
Regards,
Calvin Tan
HIBISCS (5199) - Calvin's Warning on over speculated (unproven) Hibiscus!
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/113616.jsp
