We have been having a tough time for quite a while now. However, I believe that things are beginning to turnaround. CPO, which has risen above RM3000 per ton, looks set to stay there for a while.
Chart 1: CPO's weekly chart as at Dec 16, 2016 (Source: ifs.marketcenter.com)
On Saudi's initiative, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers have agreed to minor production cut in crude oil output. This should sustain crude oil prices above USD50 in 2017.
Chart 2: WTIC's weekly chart as at Dec 16, 2016 (Source: Stockchart.com)
We have yet to see MYR recovering against USD; not because we are not improving but because USD is gaining strength. USD index, which I thought would fall back below 100.5, has in fact charged above 103 yesterday. It may touch 110 before any consolidation may set in.
Chart 3: USD index's daily chart as at Dec 16, 2016 (Source: Stockchart.com)
However we can see MYR is strengthening against SGD (see below). With this, I believe SGD-MYR may test the horizontal support at 3.05 next week.
Chart 4: SGD-MYR's weekly chart as at Dec 16, 2016 (Source: Investing.com)
If the above scenario of a recovery in MYR panned out, we may see improved sentiment in the stock market. Hopefully this would lead to a CNY rally. All of us - retailers, institutions and remisiers - need our ang pow after the dry spell in the last few months! Good luck to us!
http://nexttrade.blogspot.my/2016/12/myr-outlook-as-at-dec-16-2016.html
