Alpha Edge - Asia’s time to shine?
US equity long-term indicators have just turned negative and it looks like for now, it is Asia’s time to outperform. We are already seeing signs of breaking out in some equity indexes in Asia. This uptrend is also evident in ASEAN equity indexes where Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index has recently surpassed its 2013 high. In view of recent weakness in the US$, crude oil prices finally rebounded last week but the medium-term trend remains down for oil.
US equity long-term trends turning down
The US S&P500’s long-term technical indicators have recently turned negative, likely a sign of at least a pause in its major uptrend. The monthly MACD indicator has just turned negative, with the RSI falling below its major long-term support trendline. Weekly technical indicators have been showing negative divergence signs since Jun 2014 The next few months should be volatile for US equity markets.
Asia to outperform for now
It looks like Asia’s time to outperform. We see signs of some Asia equity indexes breaking out recently in markets such as Singapore’s STI, Taiwan’s TAIEX and Australia’s ASX 200. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is likely to challenge the 25,600-pt resistance trendline soon. This uptrend is also evident in ASEAN equity indexes. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has recently surpassed its 2013 high while Thailand’s SET is just below its 2013 high. Malaysia’s KLCI is facing strong resistance at the 1,810-1,820 levels.
Crude oil finally rebounds
The US$ is showing signs of weakness. As such, it was not a surprise that the WTI crude oil price also rebounded last week after falling to as low as US$43.60. The daily technical indicators were already showing positive divergence signs since last Dec while the weekly RSI was extremely oversold at only 9. However, the medium-term trend remains down for crude oil.
Source: CIMB Daybreak - 05 February 2015
US equity long-term indicators have just turned negative and it looks like for now, it is Asia’s time to outperform. We are already seeing signs of breaking out in some equity indexes in Asia. This uptrend is also evident in ASEAN equity indexes where Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index has recently surpassed its 2013 high. In view of recent weakness in the US$, crude oil prices finally rebounded last week but the medium-term trend remains down for oil.
US equity long-term trends turning down
The US S&P500’s long-term technical indicators have recently turned negative, likely a sign of at least a pause in its major uptrend. The monthly MACD indicator has just turned negative, with the RSI falling below its major long-term support trendline. Weekly technical indicators have been showing negative divergence signs since Jun 2014 The next few months should be volatile for US equity markets.
Asia to outperform for now
It looks like Asia’s time to outperform. We see signs of some Asia equity indexes breaking out recently in markets such as Singapore’s STI, Taiwan’s TAIEX and Australia’s ASX 200. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is likely to challenge the 25,600-pt resistance trendline soon. This uptrend is also evident in ASEAN equity indexes. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has recently surpassed its 2013 high while Thailand’s SET is just below its 2013 high. Malaysia’s KLCI is facing strong resistance at the 1,810-1,820 levels.
Crude oil finally rebounds
The US$ is showing signs of weakness. As such, it was not a surprise that the WTI crude oil price also rebounded last week after falling to as low as US$43.60. The daily technical indicators were already showing positive divergence signs since last Dec while the weekly RSI was extremely oversold at only 9. However, the medium-term trend remains down for crude oil.
Source: CIMB Daybreak - 05 February 2015
