SCIENTX (4731) – Fundamental Analysis (18 Dec 2014)

SCIENTX (4731) – Fundamental Analysis (18 Dec 2014)

SCIENTX Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1AKKhp1

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/l8x3el3

My View:-

- Valuation:
  – 5Y DCF:
    – Good Scenario: 10.91 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
    – Base Scenario: 9.49 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Bad Scenario: 8.23 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – Ugly Scenario: 7.12 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    – If growth of FCFF in the next 5 years is 1%, SCIENTX still worth 6.98.

  – Absolute EY%:
    – Trailing:
    – FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 6.2 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – R4Q (EPS: 0.675) – Fair value 6.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
    – Forward:
    – FY15 (EPS: 0.73) – Fair value 6.74 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – FY16 (EPS: 0.844) – Fair value 7.8 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.98): 0.756

  – Absolute PE:
    – FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 8.78 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    – R4Q (EPS: 0.675) – Fair value 8.83 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)

- SCIENTX is still under valued. In overall, uncertainty of fair values is from MEDIUM to HIGH.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (17 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1828657

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX.

http://lcchong.wordpress.com